본 연구의 목적은 국립공원 내 엄정한 자원보전과 수직 탐방문화를 저지대 수평 탐방문화로 유도하기 위해 조성한 북한산국립공원 둘레길의 이용 분산효과를 평가하는 것이다. 시계열 분석 결과 둘레길 조성 후 북한산국립공원 총 탐방객 수는 2010년 대비 약 6.4% 감소하였으며, 지구별로는 정릉, 구기지역이 각각 27.2%, 24.4% 감소한 반면 북한산성지구는 10.9% 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 결과적으로 북한산국립공원 둘레길은 정책 목표에 부합하는 일부 지구의 분산효과와 더불어 약 177만 명의 신규 탐방수요를 창출한 것으로 추정할 수 있다.
The aim of this study is to evaluate the dispersion effect in the use of Bukhansan National Park Dullegil, which was developed in order to induce the fairly strict preservation of resources and vertical visit culture into lowlying ground horizontal visit culture in national parks. As a result of time series analysis, the number of visitors to Bukhansan National Park after developing Dulle-gil decreased by 6.4% as against the year 2010; according to a zone, it was found that there was a decrease in visitors to Jeongreung and Gugi zone by 27.2% and 24.4% respectively while the number of the visitors to the Bukhansan Fortress Wall increased by 10.9%. Resultantly, it can be estimated that the Bukhansan National Park Dulle-gil created new demand for a visit amounting to about 1.77 million people together with the dispersion effect of some zones that correspond to its policy goal.