지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
In recent several years, East Asia, Europe and North America have suffered successive cold winters and a number of historical records on the extreme weathers are replaced with new record-breaking cold events. As a possible explanation, several studies suggested that cryospheric conditions of Northern Hemisphere (NH), i.e. Arctic sea-ice and snow cover over northern part of major continents, are changing significantly and now play an active role for modulating midlatitude atmospheric circulation patterns that could bring cold winters for some regions in midlatitude. In this study, a dynamical seasonal prediction system for NH winter is newly developed using the snow depth initialization technique and statistically predicted sea-ice boundary condition. Since the snow depth shows largest variability in October, entire period of October has been utilized as a training period for the land surface initialization and model land surface during the period is continuously forced by the observed daily atmospheric conditions and snow depths. A simple persistent anomaly decaying toward an averaged sea-ice condition has been used for the statistical prediction of sea-ice boundary conditions. The constructed dynamical prediction system has been tested for winter 2012/13 starting at November 1 using 16 different initial conditions and the results are discussed. Implications and a future direction for further development are also described.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 적설 초기화 방안
3. 해수면온도 및 해빙농도의 경계조건
4. 계절예측 방법
5. 2012/2013년 겨울철 계절예측 결과
6. 요약 및 토의
참고문헌
참고문헌 (24)
참고문헌 신청
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Bhatt, U. S / 2010 / Circumpolar Arctic Tundra Vegetation Change Is Linked to Sea Ice Decline / Earth Interact 14 (8) : 1 ~ 20
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Budikova, D. / 2009 / Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review. Global Planet / Global Planet. Change 68 : 149 ~ 163
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cohen, J / 1999 / Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability / Geophys. Res. Lett 26 (3) : 345 ~ 348
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cohen, J / 2005 / The NAO, the AO, and Global Warming: How Closely Related? / J. Climate 18 (21) : 4498 ~ 4513
6. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cohen, J / 2001 / The role of the Siberian high in Northern Hemisphere climate variability / Geophys Res Lett 28 (2) : 299 ~ 302
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Budikova, D. / 2009 / Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review. Global Planet / Global Planet. Change 68 : 149 ~ 163
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cohen, J / 1999 / Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability / Geophys. Res. Lett 26 (3) : 345 ~ 348
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cohen, J / 2005 / The NAO, the AO, and Global Warming: How Closely Related? / J. Climate 18 (21) : 4498 ~ 4513
6. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cohen, J / 2001 / The role of the Siberian high in Northern Hemisphere climate variability / Geophys Res Lett 28 (2) : 299 ~ 302
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2014-450-003135009