지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
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Many studies have related the recent variations of wildfire regime such as the increasing number of occurrances, their patterns and timing changes, and the severity of their extreme cases with global warming. However, there are only a few numbers of wildfire studies to assess how the future wildfire regime will change in the interactions between land and atmosphere with climate change especially over East Asia. This study was performed to estimate the future changing aspect of wildfire danger with global warming, using Haines Index (HI). Calculated from atmospheric instability and dryness, HI is the potential of an existing fire to become a dangerous wildfire. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, two separated 5-year simulations of current (1995~1999) and far future (2095~2099) were performed and analyzed. Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) model outputs were utilized for the model inputs for the past and future over East Asia; future prediction was driven under the IPCC A1B scenario. The results indicate changes of the wildfire danger regime, showing overall decreasing the wildfire danger in the future but intensified regional deviations between north and south. The overall changes of the wildfire regime seems to stem from atmospheric dryness which is sensitive to soil moisture variation. In some locations, the future wildfire danger overall decreases in summer but increases in winter or fall when the actual fire occurrence are generally peaked especially in South China.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 자료 및 연구방법
3. 연구결과 및 토의
4. 결론
REFERENCES
참고문헌 (23)
참고문헌 신청
1. [보고서] - Anderson, H. E / 1982 / Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior. USDA Forest Service
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Brewer, M. C / 2012 / The west coast thermal through: Climatology and synoptic evolution / Mon. Wea. Rev 140 : 3820 ~ 3824
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 채희문 / 2011 / CCGIS를 활용한 강원도 산불의 기후변화 취약성 평가 / 한국방재학회논문집 11 (4) : 123 ~ 130
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 최광용 / 2006 / 한반도 산불 확장 잠재도와 관련된 Haines Index의 시·공간적 특징 / 대한지리학회지 41 (2) : 168 ~ 187
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Coen, J. L / 2011 / Some new basics of fire behavior / Fire Manage, Today 71 : 37 ~ 42
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Brewer, M. C / 2012 / The west coast thermal through: Climatology and synoptic evolution / Mon. Wea. Rev 140 : 3820 ~ 3824
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 채희문 / 2011 / CCGIS를 활용한 강원도 산불의 기후변화 취약성 평가 / 한국방재학회논문집 11 (4) : 123 ~ 130
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 최광용 / 2006 / 한반도 산불 확장 잠재도와 관련된 Haines Index의 시·공간적 특징 / 대한지리학회지 41 (2) : 168 ~ 187
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Coen, J. L / 2011 / Some new basics of fire behavior / Fire Manage, Today 71 : 37 ~ 42
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2014-450-003199641