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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
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In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.
목차
1. 서론
2. 생존분석을 이용한 시간예측 접근
3. Cox 모형을 이용한 중요변수선정
4. AFT 모형을 이용한 반송시간 예측
5. 결론
참고문헌
참고문헌 (23)
참고문헌 신청
1. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Akaike, H. / 1974 / A new look at the statistical model identification, Automatic Control / IEEE Transactions on 19 (6) : 716 ~ 723
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Bradburn, M. J. / 2003 / Survival analysis Part III : multivariate data analysis-choosing a model and assessing its adequacy and fit / British Journal of Cancer 89 (4) : 605 ~
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chen, T. / 2009 / A fuzzy-neural knowledge-based system for job completion time prediction and internal due date assignment in a wafer fabrication plant / International Journal of Systems Science 40 (8) : 889 ~ 902
4. [학술대회논문] - Chung, B. H. / 2008 / Simulation Model for the Performance Analysis of In-Line Stocker System in TFT-LCD Fabrication Line / Journal of the Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers : 1 ~ 10
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cox, D. R. / 1972 / Regression models and life-tables / Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological) : 187 ~ 220
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Bradburn, M. J. / 2003 / Survival analysis Part III : multivariate data analysis-choosing a model and assessing its adequacy and fit / British Journal of Cancer 89 (4) : 605 ~
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chen, T. / 2009 / A fuzzy-neural knowledge-based system for job completion time prediction and internal due date assignment in a wafer fabrication plant / International Journal of Systems Science 40 (8) : 889 ~ 902
4. [학술대회논문] - Chung, B. H. / 2008 / Simulation Model for the Performance Analysis of In-Line Stocker System in TFT-LCD Fabrication Line / Journal of the Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers : 1 ~ 10
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cox, D. R. / 1972 / Regression models and life-tables / Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological) : 187 ~ 220
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