지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 연구보고서
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2013.12
- 수록면
- 1 - 163 (163page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Background of Research
The objective of this study is to provide various information on world grain market to policy makers and related industries. For this objective, development of world grain price prediction model, causal relationship on domestic and international price gaps and effect of international grain price fluctuations on domestic prices are analyzed. Meanwhile, major information on world grain market is provided in the Korea Rural Economic Institute"s World Grain Market Website.
Method of Research
This study is divided into two parts. First is research part for world grain market analysis and second is operational part to provide related information to the world grain market information system. Hypothetical grain price fluctuations are analyzed by exporting countries through a scenario analysis. To predict world grain prices, a VAR model which is a multivariate time series technique is used to develop a predicting model for wheat, corn and soybean. World grain information system"s operational part maintains their system by adding and supplementing detailed information step by step and publications “World Grain Market” periodically.
Research Results and Implications
Medium and long term world grain supply-demand prediction shows that production and consumption will make demand-supply balance. However, the range of fluctuation on yearly production is increasing due to recent climate changes. Exporter/importers" policy changes according to production fall and global economic changes are also causing imbalance in supply and demand.
According to the results of world grain market scenario analysis, the price elasticity of international soybean price to Chinese soybean import is 0.44. Since year 2004/05, the rise in Chinese meat consumption has increased international soybean price by 27.8$/t during 8 years. Price elasticity of international corn price to U.S. corn (Bio ethanol) import is 0.15. Since year 2004/05, corn price rose 7.9$/t during 8 years. The price elasticity of international soybean and corn prices to Brazil production is 0.8 and 0.1 respectively. Since year 2004/05, international soybean and corn price fell 48$/t and 4.6$/t each during 8 years. The price elasticity of international wheat to Australian wheat output is 0.1. The deteriorating weather increased the wheat price by 10$/t since year 2004/05 for 8 years.
To operate international grain information system, we need to examine methods to provide information, review composition of contents and improve ways to deliver suitable situation of domestic grains. Also, we need to satisfy users" information demands and conduct surveys to understand users" needs on processing information.
Through above research, we must reinforce abilities to react on repeated rise and falls of world grain prices. We need to deliver accurate information of world grain price fluctuations, construct international grain price prediction models for related industries and consumers, and help to react in sudden changes. Meanwhile, we must aim to manage grain prices for domestic price stabilization and diversify transaction methods to stabilize primary agricultural product prices to stabilize domestic food consumption market.
The objective of this study is to provide various information on world grain market to policy makers and related industries. For this objective, development of world grain price prediction model, causal relationship on domestic and international price gaps and effect of international grain price fluctuations on domestic prices are analyzed. Meanwhile, major information on world grain market is provided in the Korea Rural Economic Institute"s World Grain Market Website.
Method of Research
This study is divided into two parts. First is research part for world grain market analysis and second is operational part to provide related information to the world grain market information system. Hypothetical grain price fluctuations are analyzed by exporting countries through a scenario analysis. To predict world grain prices, a VAR model which is a multivariate time series technique is used to develop a predicting model for wheat, corn and soybean. World grain information system"s operational part maintains their system by adding and supplementing detailed information step by step and publications “World Grain Market” periodically.
Research Results and Implications
Medium and long term world grain supply-demand prediction shows that production and consumption will make demand-supply balance. However, the range of fluctuation on yearly production is increasing due to recent climate changes. Exporter/importers" policy changes according to production fall and global economic changes are also causing imbalance in supply and demand.
According to the results of world grain market scenario analysis, the price elasticity of international soybean price to Chinese soybean import is 0.44. Since year 2004/05, the rise in Chinese meat consumption has increased international soybean price by 27.8$/t during 8 years. Price elasticity of international corn price to U.S. corn (Bio ethanol) import is 0.15. Since year 2004/05, corn price rose 7.9$/t during 8 years. The price elasticity of international soybean and corn prices to Brazil production is 0.8 and 0.1 respectively. Since year 2004/05, international soybean and corn price fell 48$/t and 4.6$/t each during 8 years. The price elasticity of international wheat to Australian wheat output is 0.1. The deteriorating weather increased the wheat price by 10$/t since year 2004/05 for 8 years.
To operate international grain information system, we need to examine methods to provide information, review composition of contents and improve ways to deliver suitable situation of domestic grains. Also, we need to satisfy users" information demands and conduct surveys to understand users" needs on processing information.
Through above research, we must reinforce abilities to react on repeated rise and falls of world grain prices. We need to deliver accurate information of world grain price fluctuations, construct international grain price prediction models for related industries and consumers, and help to react in sudden changes. Meanwhile, we must aim to manage grain prices for domestic price stabilization and diversify transaction methods to stabilize primary agricultural product prices to stabilize domestic food consumption market.
목차
[표지]
[목차]
표목차
그림목차
[요약]
[ABSTRACT]
[제1장 서론]
1. 연구 필요성과 목적
2. 연구 범위와 방법
3. 선행연구 검토 및 차별성
[제2장 세계곡물시장 동향 분석]
1. 세계곡물시장 동향과 전망
2. 국제 곡물가격 변동 추이와 구조적 특성
3. 세계곡물시장의 변화 전망과 쟁점
[제3장 주요국의 곡물수급 변화와 국제 곡물가격 변동 분석]
1. 중국 미국 브라질 호주의 곡물수급 변화 추이
2. 국제 곡물가격 변동 분석 방법
3. 국제 곡물가격 변동 분석 결과
[제4장 국제 곡물가격 예측모형 개발]
1. 예측모형 설정
2. 예측모형 개발 및 예측력 평가
3. 월별 국제 곡물가격 예측 결과 및 활용 방안
[제5장 국제 곡물가격 변동과 국내 영향 분석]
1. 국내 곡물수급 동향
2. 국제 및 수입가격 간의 인과관계 분석
3. 곡물 수입가격이 국내 제품가격에 미치는 영향 분석
[제6장 해외곡물시장정보시스템 운영 실태]
1. 해외곡물시장정보시스템 운영 실태
2. 해외곡물시장정보시스템 활용 실태
3. 해외곡물시장정보시스템의 문제점과 개선 방안
[제7장 요약 및 결론]
[참고 문헌]
참고문헌 (0)
참고문헌 신청이 논문의 저자 정보
이 논문과 함께 이용한 논문
국제곡물시장분석과 해외곡물시장정보시스템 구축 및 운영 (3/3차연도)
성명환
,
이동소
,
손은애
한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서
2014
.12
해외곡물시장 동향과 해외곡물시장정보체계 구축방안
성명환
,
박동규
,
권대흠
외 3명
한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서
2011
.11
쌀 관세할당 관리의 법적 성격과 국제통상법적 쟁점
최승환
국제경제법연구
2015
.11
비전통안보 이슈로서 식량안보 : 한국적 함의
유호근
OUGHTOPIA
2014
.11
국제곡물선물시장의 분석과 활용방안
성명환
,
권대흠
,
윤재웅
외 1명
한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서
2012
.12
최근 본 자료
댓글(0)
0
UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2015-520-002537044