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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2014.11
- 수록면
- 1,497 - 1,502 (6page)
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초록· 키워드
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Electric load forecasting is essential for stable electric power supply, efficient operation and management of power systems, and safe operation of power generation systems. The results are utilized in generator preventive maintenance planning and the systemization of power reserve management. Development and improvement of electric load forecasting model is necessary for power system maintenance and operation. This paper proposes daily maximum electric load forecasting methods for the next 4 weeks with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and an exponential smoothing model. According to the results of forecasting of daily maximum electric load forecasting for the next 4 weeks of March, April, November 2010∼2012 using the constructed forecasting models, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model showed an average error rate of 6,66%, 5.26%, 3.61% respectively and the exponential smoothing model showed an average error rate of 3.82%, 4.07%, 3.59% respectively.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 시계열 모형 이론
3. 입력데이터
4. 사례연구
5. 결론
References
참고문헌 (10)
참고문헌 신청
1. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Luiz Felipe Amaral / 2008 / A smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) model for short-term load forecasting / ELSEVIER International Journal of Forecasting 24 (4) : 603 ~ 615
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - EI Desouky / 2000 / Hybrid adaptive techniques for electric-load forecast using ANN and ARIMA / IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution 147 (4)
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 김재석 / 2006 / 계절 ARIMA 모형을 통한 호텔객실매출액의 예측: 경주지역 특급 호텔을 중심으로 / 관광학연구 30 (2) : 381 ~ 397
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Fadhilah Razak / 2008 / Load Forecasting Using Time Series Models / Jurnal Kejuruteraan 21 : 53 ~ 62
5. [학술대회논문] - M.Y Cho / 1995 / Customer short term load forecasting by using ARIMA transfer function model / IEEE Conference on Energy Management and Power Delivery 1 : 317 ~ 322
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - EI Desouky / 2000 / Hybrid adaptive techniques for electric-load forecast using ANN and ARIMA / IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution 147 (4)
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 김재석 / 2006 / 계절 ARIMA 모형을 통한 호텔객실매출액의 예측: 경주지역 특급 호텔을 중심으로 / 관광학연구 30 (2) : 381 ~ 397
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Fadhilah Razak / 2008 / Load Forecasting Using Time Series Models / Jurnal Kejuruteraan 21 : 53 ~ 62
5. [학술대회논문] - M.Y Cho / 1995 / Customer short term load forecasting by using ARIMA transfer function model / IEEE Conference on Energy Management and Power Delivery 1 : 317 ~ 322
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2015-500-002668046