지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2014.12
- 수록면
- 77 - 84 (8page)
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초록· 키워드
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Objectives : Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in diameter (PM<SUB>10</SUB>) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability.
Methods : We obtained hourly PM<SUB>10</SUB> data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM<SUB>10</SUB> concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R²) statistics were computed.
Results : Mean annual average PM<SUB>10</SUB> concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m³ (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively). Cross-validated R² values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R² values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R² (0.36) than those for the city-specific models.
Conclusions : In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM<SUB>10</SUB> source characteristics.
Methods : We obtained hourly PM<SUB>10</SUB> data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM<SUB>10</SUB> concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R²) statistics were computed.
Results : Mean annual average PM<SUB>10</SUB> concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m³ (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively). Cross-validated R² values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R² values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R² (0.36) than those for the city-specific models.
Conclusions : In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM<SUB>10</SUB> source characteristics.
목차
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results
Discussion
References
참고문헌 (30)
참고문헌 신청
Beelen R / 2014 / Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project / Lancet 383(9919):785~795
Laden F / 2006 / Reduction in fine particulate air pollution and mortality: extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities study / Am J Respir Crit Care Med 173(6):667~672
Pope CA 3rd / 2002 / Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution / JAMA 287(9):1132~1141
Brook RD / 2010 / Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association / Circulation 121(21):2331~2378
Sun Q / 2010 / Cardiovascular effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure / Circulation 121(25):2755~2765
Laden F / 2006 / Reduction in fine particulate air pollution and mortality: extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities study / Am J Respir Crit Care Med 173(6):667~672
Pope CA 3rd / 2002 / Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution / JAMA 287(9):1132~1141
Brook RD / 2010 / Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association / Circulation 121(21):2331~2378
Sun Q / 2010 / Cardiovascular effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure / Circulation 121(25):2755~2765
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2016-539-002083168