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This paper proposes a mathematical model-based solution for sourcing decisions with an objective of minimizing the manufacturer’s total cost in the two-echelon supply chain with supply capacity risk. The risk impact is represented by uniform, beta, and triangular distributions. For the mathematical model, the probability vector of normal, risk, and recovery statuses are developed by using the status transition probability matrix and the equations for estimating the supply capacity under risk and recovery statuses are derived for each of the three probability distributions. Those formulas derived are validated using the sampling method. The results of the simulation study on the test problem show that the sourcing decisions using the proposed solution reduce the total cost by 1.6～3.7%, compared with the ones without a consideration of supply capacity risk. The total cost reduction increases approximately in a linear fashion as the probability of risk occurrence or reduction rate of supply capacity due to risk events is increased.
목차
1. 서론
2. 공급능력 리스크와 상태 확률벡터
3. 공급자의 리스크를 고려한 기대 공급량 산정 식
4. 공급능력 리스크를 고려한 구매계획 수리모형
5. 계산실험
6. 결론 및 향후과제
참고문헌
참고문헌 (40)
참고문헌 신청
Burke, G. J., Carrillo, J. E., and Vakharia, A. J. (2009), Sourcing Decisions with Stochastic Supplier Reliability and Stochastic Demand, Production and Operations Management, 18(4), 475-484.
Cavusgil, S. T. and Deligonul, S. (2012), Exogenous Risk Analysis in Global Supplier Networks : Conceptualization and Field Research Findings, Information Knowledge Systems Management, 11, 131-149.
Cucchiella, F. and Gastaldi, M. (2006), Risk Management in Supply Chain : a Real Option Approach, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 17(6), 700-720.
Dekker, H. C., Sakaguchi, J., and Kawai, T. (2013), Beyond the Contract : Managing Risk in Supply Chain Relations, Management Accounting Research, 24, 122-139.
Federgruen, A. and Yang, N. (2012), Supply Chain Management Under Simultaneous Supply and Demand Risks, Gurnani, H., Mehrotra, A., and Ray, S., eds., Supply Chain Disruptions : Theory, and Practice of Managing Risk, Editors, Springer, New York, USA.
Cavusgil, S. T. and Deligonul, S. (2012), Exogenous Risk Analysis in Global Supplier Networks : Conceptualization and Field Research Findings, Information Knowledge Systems Management, 11, 131-149.
Cucchiella, F. and Gastaldi, M. (2006), Risk Management in Supply Chain : a Real Option Approach, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 17(6), 700-720.
Dekker, H. C., Sakaguchi, J., and Kawai, T. (2013), Beyond the Contract : Managing Risk in Supply Chain Relations, Management Accounting Research, 24, 122-139.
Federgruen, A. and Yang, N. (2012), Supply Chain Management Under Simultaneous Supply and Demand Risks, Gurnani, H., Mehrotra, A., and Ray, S., eds., Supply Chain Disruptions : Theory, and Practice of Managing Risk, Editors, Springer, New York, USA.
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2016-530-002392318