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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2018.8
- 수록면
- 89 - 121 (33page)
- DOI
- 10.35505/slj.2018.08.7.2.89
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We agree with Bayesian statisticians, who are becoming the mainstream in statistics, that the traditional method of data analysis, i.e., Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST), contains many statistical and logical defects, and that we should, therefore, employ Bayesian statistics in our data analyses, which is statistically and logically sound.
One of the difficulties in employing Bayesian Data Analysis used to be that the posterior probability distribution cannot be analytically calculated in most of the cases. But thanks to the discovery of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) and the rapid progress of computer power, good approximation of posterior distribution can now easily be obtained, even for ordinary social scientists.
We employ the Bayesian Data Analysis methods in the analyses on our data from the experimental research, which uses four versions of scenarios and gathers data through internet questionnaire survey (N = 4 versions x 200 samples = 800 samples).
The scenarios are based upon a Supreme Court Case, where an elderly man with senile dementia wandered into railroad track, was hit by a train, and died. The accident caused a delay in railroad operation and damages of about JPY 7 million (ca. US$70,000) to the railroad company (the plaintiff). The family members of the elderly man (the defendants) had been taking care of him and were sued by the railroad company for the compensation. The Supreme Court ruling concluded that the care-taking family members in this particular case were not liable to compensate the damages, but suggested as a general principle that the care-takers of elderly persons with senile dementia might be liable for accident damages caused by such old person if the care-taking activities could be evaluated as assumption of such risks. Many news papers covered the ruling, expressing some concerns that it might give disincentives for family members to take good and intensive care of their old parents and that people taking care of elderly person with dementia may be forced to take such drastic preventive measures as tying an elderly person to the bed with rope or locking him/her in a room (chilling effects).
The main objectives of our study are; (1) whether and to what extent such ruling causes the chilling effects; (2) whether and to what extent people"s attitude/evaluation toward such drastic preventive measures as tying a parent to bed changes when they are informed about the ruling; and (3) whether and to what extent the difference in forums (ADR or court), conclusions (either care-taking family members win or lose), and care-taking experience (with or without such experience) yield different reactions from the people. The author asks the respondents to answer the degree of willingness to take specific types of cares, such as living together and take care of the elderly person by himself/herself, after reading the scenarios (Objective 1). We also asked the respondents whether and to what extent they deem specific types of preventive measures (such as tying a person to bed with rope) as blameworthy or permissible (Objective 2). The scenario manipulation is; (1) about information (Scenario A as control group with no case information, Scenario B with similar conclusion by court, Scenario C with similar conclusion by ADR, and Scenario D with court judgment for plaintiff) and (2) about experience (Group 1 with experience of care-taking and Group 2 without such experience; we used the filter function of internet survey system) (Objective 3).
The results are as follows. We do not find any chilling effect on the willingness to live together and to take care by himself/herself if the conclusions are similar to the Supreme Court ruling, while the willingness to take care becomes weaker if the conclusion is the judgment for the plaintiff affirming the legal liability. In the case that the type of care-taking is to live separately and to visit to take care of the old parent by himself/herself, we do not find any chilling effect either. Those who have experience of care-taking are consistently more willing to take care of a parent with senile dementia than those without such experience in both types of care-taking.
As a whole, people deem the preventive measure of tying a person to bed with rope as blameworthy, but compared to the control group, the other three groups deem the preventive measure less blameworthy. Another type of preventive measure we asked is locking the elderly person with dementia in a room. As a whole, people deem this type of preventive measure as slightly permissible. Compared to the control group, which deems the preventive measure slightly blameworthy, the other three groups deem it rather permissible. In the both types of preventive measures, the group with care-taking experience deems the measures more blameworthy than the group without care-taking experience.
認知症により責任を弁識する能力のない要介護高齢者(91歳)が，降りた駅から線路に立ち入って列車と衝突し，本人は死亡し，鉄道会社は損害を蒙るという痛ましい事故が2007年12月7日に起きた．この事故で損害を受けた鉄道会社が720万円ほどの損害賠償を，高齢者を介護していた遺族に対して求めた訴訟が最高裁判所まで争われた．この事案において，最高裁判所は，まず一般論として，遺族と認知症高齢者の間の身分関係や日常生活における接触状況に照らし，第三者(ここでは被害を蒙った鉄道会社)に対する認知症高齢者の加害行為の防止に向けて，遺族が認知症高齢者の監督を現に行い，その 態様が単なる事実上の監督を超えているなど，遺族が認知症高齢者の監督義務を引き受けたとみるべき特段の事情が認められる場合には，損害賠償責任を負うべきである，との判断を示した．但し，本件具体的事案の結論としては，本件遺族の介護の態様を詳細に認定し，遺族の損害賠償責任を否定している．この最高裁判所の判決は注目を集め，様々な報道がなされた．
この最高裁判所の設定したルールに従えば，介護・監督の程度が大きいほど，損害賠償責任を負う可能性が高くなるのであり，よってインセンティヴ効果としては，家族に対して認知症高齢者に対する介護・監督を萎縮させ，監禁等の行動制約を認知症高齢者に強制する方向の動機付けを与えたり，養護老人ホームなどの施設に入れて放置する動機付けを与えてしまい，社会的影響としてはマイナスの効果が生じると批判されている．法的責任についての裁判所等の判断が出ると，その報道が社会の人々の行動や態度にどのような影響を与えるかを検証することを本稿の課題とする．
本稿では，シナリオ・スタディないしヴィニエット・スタディの手法を用い，実験計画法によるフィールド実験のリサーチ・デザインによって，裁判・ADRの判断とその報道が人々の行動や社会に与える影響を同定しようと努力した．
また, 本稿ではベイズ統計分析の手法を採用した．伝統的な帰無仮説有意性検定に慣れ親しんでいる大多数の法社会学研究者や法律家は，新奇で戸惑いを覚えるかもしれない．しかし，本稿で論じたように，従前の帰無仮説有意性検定には数理・統計学的にも，社会科学方法論的にも致命的な問題点が内含しており，われわれ研究者にとって，ベイズ統計分析の方がむしろ素直な解釈を許す結果を出してくれる．これからの実証的な社会科学研究においてはベイズ統計学が標準的になると期待される．
One of the difficulties in employing Bayesian Data Analysis used to be that the posterior probability distribution cannot be analytically calculated in most of the cases. But thanks to the discovery of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) and the rapid progress of computer power, good approximation of posterior distribution can now easily be obtained, even for ordinary social scientists.
We employ the Bayesian Data Analysis methods in the analyses on our data from the experimental research, which uses four versions of scenarios and gathers data through internet questionnaire survey (N = 4 versions x 200 samples = 800 samples).
The scenarios are based upon a Supreme Court Case, where an elderly man with senile dementia wandered into railroad track, was hit by a train, and died. The accident caused a delay in railroad operation and damages of about JPY 7 million (ca. US$70,000) to the railroad company (the plaintiff). The family members of the elderly man (the defendants) had been taking care of him and were sued by the railroad company for the compensation. The Supreme Court ruling concluded that the care-taking family members in this particular case were not liable to compensate the damages, but suggested as a general principle that the care-takers of elderly persons with senile dementia might be liable for accident damages caused by such old person if the care-taking activities could be evaluated as assumption of such risks. Many news papers covered the ruling, expressing some concerns that it might give disincentives for family members to take good and intensive care of their old parents and that people taking care of elderly person with dementia may be forced to take such drastic preventive measures as tying an elderly person to the bed with rope or locking him/her in a room (chilling effects).
The main objectives of our study are; (1) whether and to what extent such ruling causes the chilling effects; (2) whether and to what extent people"s attitude/evaluation toward such drastic preventive measures as tying a parent to bed changes when they are informed about the ruling; and (3) whether and to what extent the difference in forums (ADR or court), conclusions (either care-taking family members win or lose), and care-taking experience (with or without such experience) yield different reactions from the people. The author asks the respondents to answer the degree of willingness to take specific types of cares, such as living together and take care of the elderly person by himself/herself, after reading the scenarios (Objective 1). We also asked the respondents whether and to what extent they deem specific types of preventive measures (such as tying a person to bed with rope) as blameworthy or permissible (Objective 2). The scenario manipulation is; (1) about information (Scenario A as control group with no case information, Scenario B with similar conclusion by court, Scenario C with similar conclusion by ADR, and Scenario D with court judgment for plaintiff) and (2) about experience (Group 1 with experience of care-taking and Group 2 without such experience; we used the filter function of internet survey system) (Objective 3).
The results are as follows. We do not find any chilling effect on the willingness to live together and to take care by himself/herself if the conclusions are similar to the Supreme Court ruling, while the willingness to take care becomes weaker if the conclusion is the judgment for the plaintiff affirming the legal liability. In the case that the type of care-taking is to live separately and to visit to take care of the old parent by himself/herself, we do not find any chilling effect either. Those who have experience of care-taking are consistently more willing to take care of a parent with senile dementia than those without such experience in both types of care-taking.
As a whole, people deem the preventive measure of tying a person to bed with rope as blameworthy, but compared to the control group, the other three groups deem the preventive measure less blameworthy. Another type of preventive measure we asked is locking the elderly person with dementia in a room. As a whole, people deem this type of preventive measure as slightly permissible. Compared to the control group, which deems the preventive measure slightly blameworthy, the other three groups deem it rather permissible. In the both types of preventive measures, the group with care-taking experience deems the measures more blameworthy than the group without care-taking experience.
認知症により責任を弁識する能力のない要介護高齢者(91歳)が，降りた駅から線路に立ち入って列車と衝突し，本人は死亡し，鉄道会社は損害を蒙るという痛ましい事故が2007年12月7日に起きた．この事故で損害を受けた鉄道会社が720万円ほどの損害賠償を，高齢者を介護していた遺族に対して求めた訴訟が最高裁判所まで争われた．この事案において，最高裁判所は，まず一般論として，遺族と認知症高齢者の間の身分関係や日常生活における接触状況に照らし，第三者(ここでは被害を蒙った鉄道会社)に対する認知症高齢者の加害行為の防止に向けて，遺族が認知症高齢者の監督を現に行い，その 態様が単なる事実上の監督を超えているなど，遺族が認知症高齢者の監督義務を引き受けたとみるべき特段の事情が認められる場合には，損害賠償責任を負うべきである，との判断を示した．但し，本件具体的事案の結論としては，本件遺族の介護の態様を詳細に認定し，遺族の損害賠償責任を否定している．この最高裁判所の判決は注目を集め，様々な報道がなされた．
この最高裁判所の設定したルールに従えば，介護・監督の程度が大きいほど，損害賠償責任を負う可能性が高くなるのであり，よってインセンティヴ効果としては，家族に対して認知症高齢者に対する介護・監督を萎縮させ，監禁等の行動制約を認知症高齢者に強制する方向の動機付けを与えたり，養護老人ホームなどの施設に入れて放置する動機付けを与えてしまい，社会的影響としてはマイナスの効果が生じると批判されている．法的責任についての裁判所等の判断が出ると，その報道が社会の人々の行動や態度にどのような影響を与えるかを検証することを本稿の課題とする．
本稿では，シナリオ・スタディないしヴィニエット・スタディの手法を用い，実験計画法によるフィールド実験のリサーチ・デザインによって，裁判・ADRの判断とその報道が人々の行動や社会に与える影響を同定しようと努力した．
また, 本稿ではベイズ統計分析の手法を採用した．伝統的な帰無仮説有意性検定に慣れ親しんでいる大多数の法社会学研究者や法律家は，新奇で戸惑いを覚えるかもしれない．しかし，本稿で論じたように，従前の帰無仮説有意性検定には数理・統計学的にも，社会科学方法論的にも致命的な問題点が内含しており，われわれ研究者にとって，ベイズ統計分析の方がむしろ素直な解釈を許す結果を出してくれる．これからの実証的な社会科学研究においてはベイズ統計学が標準的になると期待される．
목차
アブストラクト
Ⅰ. はじめに：最高裁判所の判断とその報道
Ⅱ. データ分析の手法について：実験計画法とベイズ統計分析
Ⅲ. リサーチ・デザイン
Ⅳ. 介護行動への萎縮効果についての結果分析
Ⅴ．極端な責任回避手段に対する非難可能性の評価
Ⅵ．終わりに
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