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자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
저널정보
한국무역상무학회 무역상무연구 무역상무연구 제72권
발행연도
2016.12
수록면
139 - 160 (22page)

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Using the gravitymodel, this paper analyzes empirically howtheworld trade in goods is affected by regional trade agreements(RTAs) which have been spreading rapidly since themid-1990s. This paper attempt to do the panel data analysis about 174 countries during the period of 1994-2008. These panel data include 157 RTAs. It ismeaningful that this paper uses comprehensive data to analyze the net effect of regional trade agreements on the global trade volume. This provides a clue as to the answer to the stumbling block debate raised early in the regional trade agreement. Also, confirming howthe participation of the WTOaffected the trade volume among themember countries, theWTO-related dummy variables are additionally introduced to this gravitymodel. And as far aswe know, the state system-related variables is first considered in thismodel. This variable reflects the social and cultural environments of countries as the proxy variable representing the sociocultural homogeneity. In all regressions, joining to theWTOand consistency of the state systemhave a positive effect on increasing the trade volumes between countries. According to the analysis of RTA trade effects, RTAs, on average, increase the volume of trade within the RTA region by 27%~37%, and decrease the volume of trade between the regional and the non-regional nation by 1.2%~3.4%.Therefore, the net effect of regional trade agreements on the promotion of global welfare is positive. For robustness check, we also introduce the interaction term of the dummy variable which reflects the RTA tightening and the continuous variable which reflects the distance effect. As a result, the RTAs alleviate the trade-decreasing effect which is caused by the distance between the countries.

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