지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국자료분석학회 Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society 제13권 제2호
- 발행연도
- 2011.1
- 수록면
- 543 - 552 (10page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
This paper examines whether consumer sentiment index (CSI) is useful in forecasting household consumption using a composite CSI from the Bank of Korea. Empirical analysis is conducted based on a consumption model proposed by Carroll et al. (1994), where consumption is the function of lagged values of CSI and a vector of other macroeconomic variables. According to the regression results, consumption model augmented by CSI explains 76.4% of the variation in consumption growth, which is 3.6%p higher than the baseline model with only the conventional macroeconomic variables. In the case of service expenditures, the adjusted R^2 improves by 7.3%p when consumer sentiment is included in the model. Out-of-sample forecasting tests provide further support to this evidence as the forecasting error of the CSI augmented model is lower than that of the baseline model. Empirical results of this paper suggest that consumer sentiment has significant predictive power in forecasting household consumption in Korea, especially for service expenditures.
목차
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참고문헌 (13)
참고문헌 신청
Acemoglu, D. / 1994 / Consumer confidence and rational expectations: Are agents’ beliefs consistent with the theory / Economic Journal 104 : 1 ~ 19
Bram, J. / 1998 / Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditures? A sentiment index horse race / Economic Policy Review 4 (2) : 59 ~ 78
Carroll, C. / 1994 / Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why / American Economic Review 84 : 1397 ~ 1408
Croushore,D / 2005 / Do consumer confidence index help forecast consumer spending in real time / North American Journal of Economics and Finance 16 (3) : 435 ~ 450
Easaw, J. / 2005 / Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US / Journal of Macroeconomics 27 : 517
Bram, J. / 1998 / Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditures? A sentiment index horse race / Economic Policy Review 4 (2) : 59 ~ 78
Carroll, C. / 1994 / Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why / American Economic Review 84 : 1397 ~ 1408
Croushore,D / 2005 / Do consumer confidence index help forecast consumer spending in real time / North American Journal of Economics and Finance 16 (3) : 435 ~ 450
Easaw, J. / 2005 / Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US / Journal of Macroeconomics 27 : 517
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