Characteristics and Prediction of Lung Cancer Mortality in China from 1991 to 2013

Fang, Jia-Ying; Dong, Hong-Li; Wu, Ku-Sheng; Du, Pei-Ling; Xu, Zhen-Xi; Lin, Kun

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자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Fang, Jia-Ying (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Dong, Hong-Li (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Wu, Ku-Sheng (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Du, Pei-Ling (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Xu, Zhen-Xi (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Lin, Kun (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College)

저널정보: 아시아태평양암예방학회 Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP 제16권 제14호

발행연도: 2015.1

수록면: 5,829 - 5,834 (6page)

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Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and management of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographical distribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future. Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate of lung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas were higher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographical analysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predicted to continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public to increase prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortality areas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).

#Lung cancer #epidemiological characteristics #standardized mortality #geographic distribution #prediction

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