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Forecasting the Evolution of Innovation Considering Consumers' Choice : An Application of Home-Networking Market in Korea
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소비자 선택을 고려한 신기술 혁신의 확산 예측: 한국의 홈네트워킹 시장을 대상으로

논문 기본 정보

Type
Academic journal
Author
Lee, Cheol-Yong (서울대학교 공과대학 기술정책대학원) Lee, Jeong-Dong (서울대학교 공과대학 기술정책대학원) Kim, Yeon-Bae (서울대학교 공과?가 기술정책대학원 BK21)
Journal
The Korean Society For Technology Management & Economics 기술혁신연구 기술혁신연구 제13권 제1호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2005.1
Pages
1 - 24 (24page)

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Forecasting the Evolution of Innovation Considering Consumers' Choice : An Application of Home-Networking Market in Korea
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Research history (2)

2005

Forecasting the Evolution of Innovation Considering Consumers' Choice : An Application of Home-Networking Market in Korea
Lee ,  Cheol-Yong ,  Lee 기술혁신연구 2005.01 Academic journal
Forecasting the Evolution of Home-Networking System Considering Consumers' Choice
Lee ,  Cheol-Yong ,  Lee 기술경영경제학회 학술발표회 2005.01 Proceeding
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Abstract· Keywords

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This paper applies a prelaunch forecasting model to the Home-Networking (HN) market of South Korea. The HN market of Korea is categorized into two distinctive markets. One HN market consists of new apartments in which builders install HN and the other HN market consists of existing houses in which residents purchase HN Among these markets, this paper focuses on existing houses as capturing consumers' choice. To forecast sales of HN for existing houses, we use a conjoint model based on our survey data of consumer preferences. By incorporating various indicators of HN technologies into our conjoint model, we also forecast diffusion of HN system embodied in PLC or Wireless Lan. We call this model Choice-Based Diffusion Model. In addition, based on the simulation experiments, we also identify important factors that affect the demands of HN system.
#Home-Networking #Conjoint #Diffusion #New Product Forecasting

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