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Prediction of traffic accidents using artificial neural networks
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인공신경망을 이용한 교통사고 건수 예측

논문 기본 정보

Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Journal of Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Vol.31 No.2 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2021.4
Pages
171 - 176 (6page)
DOI
10.5391/JKIIS.2021.31.2.171

Usage

cover
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Topic
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Background
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Method
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Result
Prediction of traffic accidents using artificial neural networks
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Abstract· Keywords

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Our country has a large social burden due to many traffic accident. In order to reduce and prepare social burden with its solution, we need prediction for number of exact traffic accident. This paper identifies the situation which is affecting main influence by selecting the variable data and we apply MLP(multi-layer perceptron) algorithm to predict number of traffic accident to reduce the traffic accident. We also designate choosing variables and we use normalization in order to unify values for each different unit. Then we use ReLU as an activation function to learn data for certain interval. We also use the number of traffic accident in one year ago and seasonal pattern(Rainfall, Snow, Visibility) as a variable to improve seasonal pattern prediction performance. We organize the model which is applying MLP algorithm, and we predict the number of traffic accident from 2006 to 2018. To evaluate the prediction performance, we use MAPE (mean absolute percentage error). As a result of prediction, MAPE have an average 5.79. We recognize that error between prediction and observation data was large in March through July, while error between prediction and observation data was small in December through March.
#교통 사고 건수 #딥러닝 #평균절대비오차 #정규화 #Traffic accidents #Deep learning #MAPE #Normalization

Contents

요약
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 선행 연구
3. 교통사고 건수의 특성 및 요인 분석
4. MLP를 이용한 교통사고 건수 예측
5. 교통사고 건수 예측 결과
6. 결론
References

References (24)

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Y. Hassan, D. Barker, “The impact of unseasonable or extreme weather on traffic activity within Lothian region, Scotland,” J. Transport Geography, vol. 7, pp. 209-213, 1999. google schola P. Codling, “Weather and road accidents. in climatic resources and economic activity,” David & Charles Holdings Newton Abbot, pp. 205-222, 1974. google schola J. Edwards, “Weather-related road accidents in England and Wales: a spatial analysis,” J. Transport Geography, vol. 4, pp. 201-212, 1996. google schola A. Andersson, L. Chapmanm, “The use of a temporal analogue to predict future traffic accidents and winter road conditions in Sweden,” Meteorological Applications, 2009. google schola M. Andreescu, D. Frost, “Weather and traffic accidents in Montreal,” Canada Climate Research, vol. 9, pp. 225-230, 1998. google schola

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