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The competition and conflict between the G2, the US and China, is on the rise in 2018. Recently, the US and China are raising the tension over the US’s resolve to resolve deficits in the trade with China, including the imposition of high tariffs versus the retaliatory tariffs, the increase of the US’s interest rate versus the devaluation of China’s RMB exchange rate. Why is the United States controlling China? First, increasing forecasts for China as translate G1 into reality. Second, the world’s largest consumer market is changing from the US to China. Third, the realizing of the weakening US’s influence on the world. Fourth, China’s situation is different from Japan of the Plaza Agreement (September 22, 1985). Therefore, I expect the following five variables to be significant in order for the ongoing US-China trade friction to continue the current trend of heightened conflict in the first half and alleviation of conflict in the second half. First, it is whether the US and China will stabilize and grow in the economy each other. Second, it is whether the US will raise interest rates in September. Third, it is whether the result of the US-North Korea summit (June 12, 2018) is successful to the US. Fourth, it is whether the result of the US midterm elections in November and Donald Trump can serve a consecutive term in the next presidential election. Fifth, the most important and key factors are how huge negative economic impact will be expected to themselves after expanding US-China trade friction. The US-China trade war further faces Korea, which exists between the United States and China, into difficult situations. Korea is an alliance of the US with a high degree of dependence on politics, military, and security. Meanwhile, Korea is highly dependent on the economy and trade of China. Therefore, Korea has to make a new position of foreign affairs. This needs will increase in the future, and now it is time to redefine Korea.
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