지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2022.12
- 수록면
- 781 - 791 (11page)
- DOI
- 10.15531/KSCCR.2022.13.6.781
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
The effects of extreme climate events associated with global warming on health have become a major public health concern. Previous studies on the mortality risk of high night-time temperatures, called “hot nights”, demonstrated that the current hot-night warning system in South Korea may not be sufficient because the warning system does not report the risks of night-time temperatures lower than 25°C (the current cut-off point for hot nights) and the threshold points were heterogeneous among subpopulations. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the mortality risk of hot nights using various cut-off points and subpopulation analysis to suggest effective health risk-based warning systems.
We collected time-series data on daily mortality and minimum temperature for 66 districts (si-gun-gu) in the capital area (Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon) of South Korea during the summer period (Jun. ~ Sep.) from 2011 to 2017. Cut-off point temperatures were set from 20°C to 25°C, and the days with a daily minimum temperature above the cut-off point were defined as hot nights. Through two-stage time-series analysis with a distributed lag model, the association between hot nights and mortality was estimated for each district. We then calculated the pooled risk estimates using a meta-regression model.
In the capital areas as a whole, positive mortality risk was detected around at 22°C, and the risk was highest at 25°C. In general, across all cut-off temperatures, Seoul showed higher risk compared to Gyeonggi and Incheon, and the cut-off value at which the risk was significant was the lowest (22°C). In addition, risk disparities between subpopulations (sex, age, education status, and marital status) were prominent at the highest cut-off point (25°C).
In conclusion, this study provides evidence for health-risk-based hot night warning systems, which should be expanded to lower night-time temperatures and should account for regions and subpopulations.
We collected time-series data on daily mortality and minimum temperature for 66 districts (si-gun-gu) in the capital area (Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon) of South Korea during the summer period (Jun. ~ Sep.) from 2011 to 2017. Cut-off point temperatures were set from 20°C to 25°C, and the days with a daily minimum temperature above the cut-off point were defined as hot nights. Through two-stage time-series analysis with a distributed lag model, the association between hot nights and mortality was estimated for each district. We then calculated the pooled risk estimates using a meta-regression model.
In the capital areas as a whole, positive mortality risk was detected around at 22°C, and the risk was highest at 25°C. In general, across all cut-off temperatures, Seoul showed higher risk compared to Gyeonggi and Incheon, and the cut-off value at which the risk was significant was the lowest (22°C). In addition, risk disparities between subpopulations (sex, age, education status, and marital status) were prominent at the highest cut-off point (25°C).
In conclusion, this study provides evidence for health-risk-based hot night warning systems, which should be expanded to lower night-time temperatures and should account for regions and subpopulations.
목차
ABSTRACT
1. 서론
2. 연구재료 및 방법
3. 연구결과
4. 고찰
References
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