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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
배소현 (경북대학교 의과대학) 김윤정 (경북대학교) 황소윤 (경북대학교) 권기태 (경북대학교) 장현하 (경북대학교) 김신우 (경북대학교)
저널정보
연세대학교 의과대학 Yonsei Medical Journal Yonsei Medical Journal 제62권 제9호
발행연도
2021.9
수록면
806 - 813 (8page)
DOI
10.3349/ymj.2021.62.9.806

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Purpose: We aimed to develop a novel mortality scoring system for inpatients with COVID-19 based on simple demographic factorsand laboratory findings. Materials and Methods: We reviewed and analyzed data from patients who were admitted and diagnosed with COVID-19 at 10hospitals in Daegu, South Korea, between January and July 2020. We randomized and assigned patients to the development andvalidation groups at a 70% to 30% ratio. Each point scored for selected risk factors helped build a new mortality scoring system usingCox regression analysis. We evaluated the accuracy of the new scoring system in the development and validation groups usingthe area under the curve. Results: The development group included 1232 patients, whereas the validation group included 528 patients. In the developmentgroup, predictors for the new scoring system as selected by Cox proportional hazards model were age ≥70 years, diabetes, chronickidney disease, dementia, C-reactive protein levels >4 mg/dL, infiltration on chest X-rays at the initial diagnosis, and the need foroxygen support on admission. The areas under the curve for the development and validation groups were 0.914 [95% confidenceinterval (CI) 0.891?0.937] and 0.898 (95% CI 0.854?0.941), respectively. According to our scoring system, COVID-19 mortality was0.4% for the low-risk group (score 0?3) and 53.7% for the very high-risk group (score ≥11). Conclusion: We developed a new scoring system for quickly and easily predicting COVID-19 mortality using simple predictors. This scoring system can help physicians provide the proper therapy and strategy for each patient.

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