등검은말벌 여왕벌의 봄철 출현시기를 예측하기 위해 누적온일도 기반 모델을 개발하였다. 모델의 파라미터인 기준온도는 0°C에서 15°C까지 0.1°C 간격으로, 누적온일도는 40 DD에서 1500 DD까지 1 DD 간격으로 다양한 조합을 검토하였다. 또한 온일도 누적 시작일을 고려하였으며, 그 결과 1월 1일부터 8°C의 기준온도로 온일도를 누적하였을 때 350 DD에서 봄철 여왕벌의 50%가 출현을 완료하는 것으로 추정되었다. 추정한 누적온일도를 기반으로 출현 분포를 모의한 결과 등검은말벌 여왕벌은 200 DD에서 발생이 시작되어 600 DD에 발생이 마무리 되었고, 실제 발생 데이터를 비교적 잘 설명하였다.
Mated queens of Vespa hornets overwinter and subsequently emerge in the spring. Accurately predicting this emergence timing is critical not only for effective management but also for enhancing our understanding of their ecological patterns. Such timing is crucial to align control measures with the most vulnerable phase for the pest. Since its introduction in 2003, the Vespa velutina nigrithorax has become a significant threat to beekeeping. The control measures applied in spring greatly affect the population levels in the summer and fall seasons. This study developed a predictive model for the spring emergence of V. velutina nigrithorax using data collected from April 1 to June 30, over the years 2014 to 2020, across ten different regions. The model is based on degree days, utilizing a base temperature of 8°C, with thermal requirements of 350-degree days (DD) starting from a biofix date of January 1st. Thermal requirement variations were modeled using a two-parameter Weibull function. The model well captures the observed patterns of V. velutina queen emergence and can be effectively used to schedule the monitoring and control of these queens in the spring.