In 2009, South Korea established 30% a reduction target in the amount of greenhouse gases(GHG) compared to business-as-usual levels by 2020. This reduction target is the highest level in the goals for developing countries and the government announced the policies and regulation to achieve the goal. Among them, the most considerable issue was ''set-up of the regulation standard for GHG emission in transport sector''. Greenhouse Gas Inventory & Research Center of Korea reported in 2011 that the amount of domestic GHG emission in 2009 was 607.6 million CO2 ton and 84.9% of the amount was emissions in Energy sector as 516.0 million CO2 ton. However, there is not a industry, which does not use energy and when we push to mitigate the amount of emissions, GDP drops inevitably. However, ''passenger car'' is not an essential method for living and industry. Also, since policy can easily access to it, it was the first reduction object in parallel with the existing air pollution reduction policy. But, because South Korea does not have a specific model to precisely estimate the reduction amount of GHG emissions from passenger cars, the estimation is deducted from technology development or application of policy, causing different problems for the right policy decision.
Therefore, the purpose of the study is to analyze cost-benefit and effect of policies, which are suggested from policy decision makers, to use it for policy decision making in a short time. In the pursuit of this, the method, not only for estimating the number of registered cars in the medium to longer term by using CARMOD but also estimating the amount of GHG emissions in future and GHG mitigation potential by applying emission coefficient, should be prepared.
According to the research result, the number of registered cars in future is estimated as follows, in 2030 3.77 million diesel passenger cars, 9.85 million gasoline passenger cars and 2.10 million LPG passenger cars, in 2050 3.61 million diesel passenger cars, 9.52 million gasoline passenger cars and 1.97 million LPG passenger cars. To verify the estimations of the research results of this study, the number of registered cars from 2008 to 2012 was estimated with statistics until 2007 and the result showed -.9.7%∼2.3% of error, which is the high reliability.
Also, to emphasize the availability of this study, by applying emission coefficient the amount of GHG emissions in future is estimated and GHG mitigation potential is calculated. Even though, for the calculation, there were some suppositions and simplified numerical models, if it is used with other estimation models such as mileage and emission coefficient like cases abroad, the reliability of results can be higher.
The research result of this study will be effectively used for the decision-makers of each agencies and policy researchers, who are in charge of managing emissions and fuel efficiency.