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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학위논문
저자정보

김유리 (충북대학교, 충북대학교 대학원)

지도교수
황희연
발행연도
2014
저작권
충북대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.

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이 논문의 연구 히스토리 (2)

초록· 키워드

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As values and recognitions of forests have been changed, a movement to nurture them also increasingly spreads In Korea. However, forest fires not only extinguish forest resources in a moment but also seriously cause physical and economical damages as well as indirect ones. Since the forest fires occur by artificial reasons in Korea, they are closely related with land uses. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze spatial distribution patterns of forest fire occurrence regions in Chungcheongbuk-do and a relationship with land uses through spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression analysis from 1991 to 2012. The forest fire occurrence in Chungcheongbuk-do was highly crowded and forms the dense spacial
density pattern and exhibited the very significant spatial autocorrelation. From examinations by each reason of forest fire, it was suggested that although reason 1 presented a locally strong relation with reason 2, and they were clustered, for reason 3, outliers were often derived, so locally weak relation was shown.
It was found that the land uses which often affected the forest fire occurrences were bare , agriculture and forest ares, and the occurrence of forest fires might have effects on about 40% of average forest fire occurrences. Through examinations of land use effects by each reason of forest fire occurrences, it was suggested that agriculture and forest areas approximately affected 22% of adjacent ones'' forest fires for the reason 1; bare, agriculture and forest areas have effects on as much as 48% of forest fires in neighborhoods for the reason 2; it was analyzed that the explanatory power of the model was very low for the reason 3.
On the basis of findings, it is indicated that a specific forest fire policy suitable for several features of land uses is needed to protect the forest fires. The definite policy depending on the types of land is essential along with the existing forest fire policies, given that the local patterns of forest fires are closely associated with the land uses. This study is meaningful, in that it introduces an effective analysis on spatial data by applying a new approach to a spatial analysis of forest fire research. The more objective findings were derived from application of the spatial statistics to a relation between the existing variables. It was identified as a validate study methodology, especially in researches of forest fires highly affecting through the geographical proximity.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론 1
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
(1) 연구의 배경 1
(2) 연구의 목적 2
2. 연구의 범위 3
3. 연구의 방법 3
4. 연구의 흐름 4
Ⅱ. 이론적 고찰 6
1. 공간통계론 6
(1) 공간자기상관 8
(2) 공간계량모델 11
(3) 공간회귀모델 12
2. 산불의 의의 14
3. 산불 선행연구고찰 16
4. 이론적 고찰 종합 19
Ⅲ. 분석의 틀 21
1. 충청북도의 산불발생 현황 21
2. 자료구성 및 구축 22
3. 분석의 틀 24
4. 분석의 방법 25
(1) 산불발생지역의 공간분포패턴 분석 25
(2) 공간적 자기상관 분석 30
(3) 공간회귀분석 33
Ⅳ. 산불의 공간분포패턴 분석 35
1. 산불발생지역의 군집 및 밀도패턴 분석 35
(1) 최근린지수 35
(2) 커널밀도분석 38
2. 산불의 지역간 연관성 분석 42
(1) 전역적 자기상관성 분석 42
(2) 국지적 자기상관성 분석 44
3. 분석결과 종합 51
Ⅴ. 토지이용에 따른 산불발생의 영향분석 53
1. 공간회귀모형의 적용 54
2. 산불발생의 영향분석 55
(1) 공간계량모형의 구축을 위한 일반선형회귀분석 55
(2) 공간회귀분석의 추정결과 57
(3) 공간오차모델을 통한 산불발생 영향 분석 59
3. 원인별 산불발생의 영향분석 59
(1) 공간계량모형의 구축 59
(2) 공간회귀분석의 추정결과 61
(3) 공간오차모델을 통한 산불발생 영향 분석 63
4. 분석결과 종합 및 정책적 시사점 도출 64
(1) 분석결과 종합 64
(2) 정책적 시사점 65
Ⅵ. 결론 66
참고문헌 69

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