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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학위논문
- 저자정보
- 지도교수
- 문일주
- 발행연도
- 2015
- 저작권
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초록· 키워드
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This study aims to develop a statistical model for typhoon-induced
accumulated rainfall (TAR) prediction over the Korean Peninsular (KP) using
historical track, intensity, and rainfall data for 91 KP-influence typhoons
during 1977-2014. Tracks of typhoon are obtained from the best track data
archived by the RSMC Tokyo and rainfall data are from the 56
meteorological stations over the KP. The procedure for the statistical
estimation of TAR consists of three steps: (i) estimating the TAR at 56
stations for the KP-influence typhoons during 1977-2014, (ii) selecting
historical typhoons similar to the track of the target typhoon within the
regions of 32-40°N and 120-138°E using a Fuzzy c-Mean clustering method,
(iii) averaging the TAR for the top-16 typhoons with the highest track
similarity after a bias correction of TAR based on a linear regression
between TAR and intensity (maximum wind speed of typhoon) bias.
Simulation results for 91 KP-influence typhoons revealed that the present
model is capable to simulate TAR with an accuracy of 56mm mean root
mean square error (RMSE) over 56 stations. For the validation of model,
real-case predictions for Typhoon Chanhom and Goni in 2015 are performed.
The result shows that the model predicted TAR with the RMSE of 33mm
and 29mm for Chanhom and Goni, respectively, when the best track data are
used. In the predictions using the predicted track and intensity data for
Typhoon Goni, out model also showed an overall good performance with the
RMSE of 28~50mm, varying according to the accuracy of the predicted track
and intensity.
accumulated rainfall (TAR) prediction over the Korean Peninsular (KP) using
historical track, intensity, and rainfall data for 91 KP-influence typhoons
during 1977-2014. Tracks of typhoon are obtained from the best track data
archived by the RSMC Tokyo and rainfall data are from the 56
meteorological stations over the KP. The procedure for the statistical
estimation of TAR consists of three steps: (i) estimating the TAR at 56
stations for the KP-influence typhoons during 1977-2014, (ii) selecting
historical typhoons similar to the track of the target typhoon within the
regions of 32-40°N and 120-138°E using a Fuzzy c-Mean clustering method,
(iii) averaging the TAR for the top-16 typhoons with the highest track
similarity after a bias correction of TAR based on a linear regression
between TAR and intensity (maximum wind speed of typhoon) bias.
Simulation results for 91 KP-influence typhoons revealed that the present
model is capable to simulate TAR with an accuracy of 56mm mean root
mean square error (RMSE) over 56 stations. For the validation of model,
real-case predictions for Typhoon Chanhom and Goni in 2015 are performed.
The result shows that the model predicted TAR with the RMSE of 33mm
and 29mm for Chanhom and Goni, respectively, when the best track data are
used. In the predictions using the predicted track and intensity data for
Typhoon Goni, out model also showed an overall good performance with the
RMSE of 28~50mm, varying according to the accuracy of the predicted track
and intensity.
목차
I. 서론 1II. 자료 41. 태풍 최적경로 자료 42. 강수 관측자료 9III. 통계모델 구성방법 121. 태풍시기의 누적강수량 산출 방법 122. 유사진로태풍 선정방법 193. 태풍강도를 고려한 누적강수량 보정방법 254. 최적의 앙상블 개수 선정 방법 28IV. 결과 301. 유사태풍 통계기반 한반도 영향태풍의 누적강수량 예측모델 구성 302. 과거 태풍에 대한 누적강수량 오차 분석 423. 2015년 태풍에 대한 예측 실험 48V. 요약 및 결론 65참고문헌 67부록 69감사의 글 82
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