The present study aimed to analyze the effects of changing regional and demographic variables such as interest rate and consumer price index on house brokerage markets by focusing on gradually sluggish housing markets in Jeollabuk-do caused by economic slowdown, aging population and population outflow.
For methods, a time series multiple regression analysis using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was employed in that the number of house brokerage and regional input variables have characteristics observed in a time series way.
The following is a list of implications from this study.
First, changes in population largely affected the number of house brokerage. More people living in Jeollabuk-do are expected to leave this area due to concentration in metropolitan areas. With the rapid progress in aging, it is necessary to take into account regional differences in terms of population movement, outflow, inflow and aging.
Second, house brokerage markets in this area are affected by gross regional domestic product and consumer price index so that it is important to take a look at changing commodity price as well as varying economic situation in Jeollabuk-do. As the patterns of economic development vary according to regions, it is necessary to consider this point from which house brokerage markets could be immensely affected. Moreover, earlier studies suggested that economically active population does not play a crucial role in house brokerage markets. However, it should be noted that its effects can be considerable depending on employment boosted by regional economic growth.
Third, the recession of housing markets in old areas will be facilitated due to the development of new towns in Jeollabuk-do such as in Jeonju. The need to forecast the potential effects of urban regeneration new deal projects underway on house brokerage markets should be considered given regional differences.
Lastly, the recession of house brokerage markets can be seen as natural as its value as investment goods is underrated in that there is a right balance between demand and supply of houses in economically advanced South Korea. Against this backdrop, developing both house brokerage markets and real estate management markets will be an important breakthrough like advanced countries.