Natural gas is globally emerging as an important energy source for environmental, political and regional reasons. In Korea, it is imported as liquified natural gas, and natural gas utilization is increasing as energy conversion policies are activated. As Korea relies on imports of all natural gas, it is important to analyze the stability of supply. Therefore, this study suggested a method for reducing supply risk and for providing stable supply and demand through risk analysis of Korea''s import structure.
We analyzed the changes in supply risk by using simulation analysis after 2024 when long-term contract ends. As the risk factors, structural risk, dependent risk, and infrastructure risk were used as domestic risk items, and resource risk, geopolitical risk, market risk, and transport risk were analyzed as risk factors of exporting countries. The risk index of the importing countries was normalized to calculate the composite indicator GSSI(Gas Supply Security Index), and the risk of each exporting country was analyzed by year.
As the results of research, we found the followings. First, in order to reduce the supply risk, the concentration of importing countries should be lowered. Second, Russia is the country with the highest GSSI among the nine countries analyzed, so it is necessary to lower the proportion of countries with relatively low GSSI and increase the imports from Russia. Third, increasing the number of importing countries or maintaining friendly relations with countries where the supply is stable could give us the positive impact in terms of total GSSI.
In addition, we suggested some strategies such as the increase in the spot market and the activation of LNG use such as LNG bunkering and small scale LNG (SSLNG).