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The 2000 Korean general election was a disaster for the polling industry and the sponsoring network broadcasters. After the ballot boxes were closed, the broadcasters broke the results of the exit polls and predicted the ruling Millennium Democratic Party would gain the majority over the opposition Grand National Party in the 16th National Assembly. Yet the election outcomes surprised the pollsters; the opposition party won the election by a comfortable margin. Print media responded to the failure of the election forecasting with a harsh criticism of the bad performance of the exit polls and the broadcasting journalism.
What did go wrong with the polls? This study first reviewed the assessments of the exit polls conducted in the 1992 British general election and in other 'mis-forecasted' elections. The review identified the main causes for the bad performance of the exit polls: the campaign effects of voter swing and the methodological difficulties in exit polls such as sampling biases, 'dont knows', non-responses, and differential turnout. Based on the examination of the 1992 British election forecasting, this study then argued that the failure of the exit poll in the 2000 Korean general election should be attributed not only to the methodological difficulties inherent in the exit poll but also to political communication contexts of voter perception and behavior. In particular, the 'spiral of silence' process might happen for the conservative GNP supporters: Finding the opinion climate unfavorable to their political opinion, the conservative voters were less likely to reveal their political view to survey interviewers. On the election day, they in fact came out to vote for their candidates.
This study attempted to account for the failed election forecasting from the perspective of 'spiral of silence' and other social cognitive processes of political communication. The critical question was whether voters political perception of the opinion climate had consequences for 'willingness to speak out' within the context of the 2000 general election. Hypotheses were formulated to account for 'willingness to speak out' with the explanatory variables such as perception of the opinion climate, the third person effect perception, perception of media biases, political cynicism, and political ideology.
An electoral district representative of the upsetting election outcomes, Anyang Dongahn, was selected for conducting a survey with the 'ex post facto' design. A sample of 704 voters participated the survey. A series of multiple regression analyses revealed that the interaction between the perception of opinion climate and political ideology influenced 'willingness to speak out' in survey interviews. That is, the conservative voters who found their political attitude unpopular were less likely to speak out in the survey interviewing setting. It was also found that the interaction between third person perception and political ideology affected 'willingness to speak out'. Finally, perception of media biases and political cynicism had negative consequences for 'willingness to speak out'. The findings were discussed in terms of the implications of 'unwillingness to speak out' for the bad performance of the exit polls in the 2000 Korean general election.
What did go wrong with the polls? This study first reviewed the assessments of the exit polls conducted in the 1992 British general election and in other 'mis-forecasted' elections. The review identified the main causes for the bad performance of the exit polls: the campaign effects of voter swing and the methodological difficulties in exit polls such as sampling biases, 'dont knows', non-responses, and differential turnout. Based on the examination of the 1992 British election forecasting, this study then argued that the failure of the exit poll in the 2000 Korean general election should be attributed not only to the methodological difficulties inherent in the exit poll but also to political communication contexts of voter perception and behavior. In particular, the 'spiral of silence' process might happen for the conservative GNP supporters: Finding the opinion climate unfavorable to their political opinion, the conservative voters were less likely to reveal their political view to survey interviewers. On the election day, they in fact came out to vote for their candidates.
This study attempted to account for the failed election forecasting from the perspective of 'spiral of silence' and other social cognitive processes of political communication. The critical question was whether voters political perception of the opinion climate had consequences for 'willingness to speak out' within the context of the 2000 general election. Hypotheses were formulated to account for 'willingness to speak out' with the explanatory variables such as perception of the opinion climate, the third person effect perception, perception of media biases, political cynicism, and political ideology.
An electoral district representative of the upsetting election outcomes, Anyang Dongahn, was selected for conducting a survey with the 'ex post facto' design. A sample of 704 voters participated the survey. A series of multiple regression analyses revealed that the interaction between the perception of opinion climate and political ideology influenced 'willingness to speak out' in survey interviews. That is, the conservative voters who found their political attitude unpopular were less likely to speak out in the survey interviewing setting. It was also found that the interaction between third person perception and political ideology affected 'willingness to speak out'. Finally, perception of media biases and political cynicism had negative consequences for 'willingness to speak out'. The findings were discussed in terms of the implications of 'unwillingness to speak out' for the bad performance of the exit polls in the 2000 Korean general election.
목차
1. 문제제기
2. 선거 예측조사의 실패 요인
3. ‘응답 거부‘ 및 ‘ 응답불성실‘의 정치적 맥락
4. 연구방법
5. 연구결과
6. 결론 및 토론
참고문헌
ABSTRACT
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