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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국기상학회 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.45 No.1
- 발행연도
- 2009.2
- 수록면
- 45 - 54 (10page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
In this study, a Bayesian method has been used to predict the seasonal number of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the East China Sea (25°N-35°N, 120°E-130°E). The method considers two periods each year and provides several different predictions of the number of TCs that will enter the target area during a typhoon season, assigning a probability value to indicate the likelihood of each prediction. The method was used to forecast the number of TCs that would occur over the extended season (June-September) issued by June 1 and over the peak season (July-September) issued by July 1. The three parameters of sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and 850-hPa vorticity (VOR850) were used as predictors, based on lag correlation coefficients with the TCs over the target region for 1979-2003. For the extended season prediction, the SST for February-April, the VOR850 for February 16-May 15, and the OLR for May 1-May 15 were chosen as predictors in the TC forecast system. The three predictors for the peak season prediction are delayed one month relative to those for the extended season prediction. The observed TCs over the target region mainly fall into the prediction range within 25% probability from the median during the period from 1979 to 2007. The method predicts the mean TC frequency with a high level of accuracy, yielding a correlation coefficient of 0.69 and 0.71 and a root mean square error of 1.48 and 1.20 between the predicted and observed TCs for the extended and peak season forecasts, respectively. This TC prediction method may soon be used for operational purposes.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Data
3. Predictands, predictors, and prediction method
4. Seasonal predictions and validations
5. Summary
REFERENCES
참고문헌 (25)
참고문헌 신청
1. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chan, J. C. L / 1998 / Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea / Wea. Forecasting 13 : 997 ~ 1004
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chan, J. C. L. / 2001 / Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific / Wea. Forecasting 16 : 491 ~ 498
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chu, P.-S / 1998 / Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii / J. Appl. Meteor. 37 : 951 ~ 960
4. [단행본] - Chu, P.-S / 2004 / ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. In Hurricane and Typhoon: Past, Present, and Future / Columbia Univ. Press : 462 ~
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chu, P.-S / 2007 / Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method / Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. 18 : 805 ~ 825
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chan, J. C. L. / 2001 / Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific / Wea. Forecasting 16 : 491 ~ 498
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chu, P.-S / 1998 / Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii / J. Appl. Meteor. 37 : 951 ~ 960
4. [단행본] - Chu, P.-S / 2004 / ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. In Hurricane and Typhoon: Past, Present, and Future / Columbia Univ. Press : 462 ~
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Chu, P.-S / 2007 / Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method / Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. 18 : 805 ~ 825
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