지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
The purpose of this study is to estimate the determinant factors of korean travel payments and travel revenues by using econometric methods and to induce policy implication. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test and history simulation and ex-post forecasting. And we apply impulse response functions and variance decomposition to the structural model. to test the fitness of model we conduct historical simulation and ex-post forecast.
The major emprical results of the study are as follows: The effect of exchange rate to travel payments is negative and the effect of domestic business on travel payments is positive and elastic. The effect of exchange rate to travel revenues is positive and the effect of foreign business on travel payments is also positive. we can find that these variables are significant factors on determining the travel balance.
As a result of test of dynamic short run behavior of variables, the travel payments respond negatively to the shock in exchange rate and positively domestic business and then decay slowly. The response of shock in exchange rate is a larger than that in domestic business in short run. Travel revenues responds positively to the shock in exchange rate and also positively to the shock in foreign business, and foreign business largely impacts on travel revenues in short run.
We can infer that the policy for improvement of travel balance have to be considered a long run and short run characteries of variables of exchange rate and domestic and foreign business.
The major emprical results of the study are as follows: The effect of exchange rate to travel payments is negative and the effect of domestic business on travel payments is positive and elastic. The effect of exchange rate to travel revenues is positive and the effect of foreign business on travel payments is also positive. we can find that these variables are significant factors on determining the travel balance.
As a result of test of dynamic short run behavior of variables, the travel payments respond negatively to the shock in exchange rate and positively domestic business and then decay slowly. The response of shock in exchange rate is a larger than that in domestic business in short run. Travel revenues responds positively to the shock in exchange rate and also positively to the shock in foreign business, and foreign business largely impacts on travel revenues in short run.
We can infer that the policy for improvement of travel balance have to be considered a long run and short run characteries of variables of exchange rate and domestic and foreign business.
목차
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 모형의 설정
Ⅲ. 실증분석
Ⅳ. 요약 및 결론
참고문헌
ABSTRACT
참고문헌 (25)
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2010-326-002851110