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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
동향자료
저자정보
Jin Kyo SUH and KIM Min-Sung
저널정보
대외경제정책연구원 [KIEP] World Economy Brief World Economy Brief 제121권
발행연도
2015.9
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The July deadline for the Doha Round “work program” was missed. The WTO DG urged delegations to come prepare this autumn to redouble their efforts toward reaching “substantive outcomes” ahead of their December ministerial conference in Nairobi, Kenya. However, it seems hardly likely that WTO members will reach a compromise on the work program any time soon, as the Doha negotiations themselves remain deadlocked. In order to settle on even a small package at the Nairobi ministerial conference, major players such as the U.S., EU, China, India, and Brazil should establish a compromise on the following several key issues through strong political will. First, in domestic support of agricultural negotiations, the OTDS is likely to be a key determinant of possible outcomes as a whole. First attempt to reach an agreement in this area will consist of mutual concession based on self-reflection and mutual recognition. In many ways the significance of this item is small compared to the gains from better market access and the removal of export subsidies. Second, the most important item on the DDA agricultural and NAMA agenda is market access, particularly tariff reduction methods. In order to reach an agreement on tariff reduction formulas in both agriculture and NAMA, additional flexibilities with very strong conditions need to be incorporated into the average tariff cut method. Instead, both the average reduction rate and the minimum reduction rate need to be raised properly in the average tariff cuts. This idea is a kind of trade-off between flexibilities and reduction rates within the average tariff cut approach. Third, the MC10 is the first WTO ministerial to be held in sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, advanced countries should concede the priority demands of developing countries, in particular the African and least-developed countries, with respect to the Development Agenda such as LDC issues. Fourth, WTO members need to pay attention to high costs incurred by delayed implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement. WTO member countries should seek to assure that the TFA enters into force before or just after the Nairobi Ministerial in December 2015. Finally, Developing members need to realize that developed countries are leading mega-regional FTA such as TPP and TTIP and engaged in plurilateral negotiations such as TiSA and EWG, which will occupy center stage in world trade policy as a consequence of the DDA’s failure. If developed countries create their own league of trade liberalization based on mega FTAs or plurilateral negotiations, then the WTO could fall into a small league composed only of developing countries.

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