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Electricity forecasting model using specific time zone
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특정 시간대 전력수요예측 시계열모형

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Academic journal
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Journal
The Korean Data and Information Science Society Journal of the Korean Data And Information Science Society Vol.27 No.2 KCI Excellent Accredited Journal
Published
2016.4
Pages
275 - 284 (10page)

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Electricity forecasting model using specific time zone
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Accurate electricity demand forecasts is essential in reducing energy spend and preventing imbalance of the power supply. In forcasting electricity demand, we considered double seasonal Holt-Winters model and TBATS model with sliding window. We selected a specific time zone as the reference line of daily electric demand because it is least likely to be influenced by external factors. The forecasting performance have been evaluated in terms of RMSE and MAPE criteria. We used the observations ranging January 4, 2009 to December 31 for testing data. For validation data, the records has been used between January 1, 2012 and December 29, 2012.
#참조선 #multiple seasonal exponential smoothing #다중 계절성 지수 평활법 #reference line #sliding window #전력수요예측 #슬라이딩 창 #Electricity demand forecasting

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[학술지(정기간행물)] - Box, G. E. P. / 1964 / An analysis of transformations / Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 26 : 211 ~ 252 google schola [단행본] - Brown, R. G. / 1959 / Statistical forecasting for inventory control / McGraw-Hill google schola [단행본] - Brown, R. G. / 1962 / Smoothing, forecasting and prediction of discrete Time Series / Prentice-Hall google schola [학술지(정기간행물)] - De Livera, A. M. / 2011 / Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing / Journal of the American Statistical Association 106 : 1513 ~ 1527 google schola [보고서] - Holt, C. C. / 1957 / Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages google schola

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