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Heuristic Li-Lee Model for Long-term Prediction of Regional Headship Rate
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지역별 가구주율 장기예측을 위한 Heuristic Li-Lee 모형

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
The Korean Data Analysis Society Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society 제20권 제2호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2018.1
Pages
657 - 668 (12page)

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Heuristic Li-Lee Model for Long-term Prediction of Regional Headship Rate
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In that Korea's rapid social change is related not only to population problems such as low fertility and aging but also to the form and size of households such as family formation and demolition and increase of single households, future household projection are made and published by nationwide and regions along with future population projection. Generally, future household projection estimates the future expected households by reflecting the existing demographic changes and household changes, but rapid changes in population dynamics may result in unrealistic projection in long-term forecasts. This paper develops a new prediction model of headship rate to reflect the overall trend of household change in Korea in making future household projection and to reduce the influence of recent rapid change patterns over time. This paper proposes heuristic Li-Lee model by applying heuristic Lee-Carter model (Cho et al., 2018a), and adding the speed control coefficient to the Li-Lee model. The analysis results of long-term forecasts show that this model is suitable for long-term prediction of headship rate for regional future household projection.
#Future household projection #headship rate #speed control coefficient #HLC model #Li-Lee model.

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References (14)

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Bell, M. / 1995 / Household and family forecasting models: a review google schola 조윤랑 / 2018 / 혼인상태간 전이율 보정에 대한 연구 / Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society 20(1):137~147 dbpia 조윤랑 / 2018 / 혼인율 장기예측을 위한 Heuristic Lee-Carter 모형 / Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society 20(1):125~136 dbpia 김형석 / 2002 / 가구주율법에 의한 장래가구추계 / 조사연구 3(1) dbpia 김성용 / 2017 / 베이지안 방법을 이용한 연령별 출산율 예측에 대한 연구 / Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society 19(1):175~184 dbpia

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