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A Study for Prediction of Age Specific Fertility Rates by Using Bayesian Approach
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베이지안 방법을 이용한 연령별 출산율 예측에 대한 연구

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
The Korean Data Analysis Society Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society 제19권 제1호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2017.1
Pages
175 - 184 (10page)

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A Study for Prediction of Age Specific Fertility Rates by Using Bayesian Approach
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Abstract· Keywords

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Analysis and prediction of age specific fertility rates is one of important components for population projection. To predict age specific fertility rates, parametric models were fit to data at each time point, and parameter estimates from the model were forecasted by using time series models. However, this approach cannot take into account the uncertainty from model fitting at fixed time and the uncertainty from modeling time series of parameter estimates at the same time. Since it is well known that Bayesian approach can overcome this problem, UN (the United Nations) forecasted total fertility rates and life expectancy at birth at world population prospects by using Bayesian approach. However, this work was limited to only total fertility rates and life expectancy at birth. In this paper, Bayesian method to predict age specific fertility rates are proposed, and applied to forecast of Korean age specific fertility rates. By using MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) method, the uncertainty from model fitting at each time and from modeling time series of parameters can be considered at the same time. Finally, forecasts of age specific fertility rates and their confidence intervals are presented by using the proposed method.
#인구추계 #베이지안 #모수적 모형 #연령별 출산율. #age specific fertility rates #Bayesian method #parametric models #population projection.

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References (18)

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Alkema, L. / 2011 / Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries / Demography 48 : 815 ~ 839 google schola Chandola, T. / 1999 / Recent european fertility patterns : Fitting curves to"distorted"distributions / Population Studies 53 (3) : 317 ~ 329 google schola Gerland, P. / 2014 / World population stabilization unlikely this century / Science 346 : 234 ~ 237 google schola Gilje, E. / 1969 / Fitting curves to age-specific fertility rates: some examples / Statistical Review of the Swedish National Central Bureau of Statistics 3 (7) : 118 ~ 134 google schola Hadwiger, H. / 1940 / Eine analytische reprodutions-funktion fur biologische gesamtheiten / Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift 23 : 101 ~ 113 google schola

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