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A Weighted Additive Model for the Whole Demand Analysis of a Seasonally Dependent Product Using Meteorological and Regional Data, Considering Social Customs Factors and Policy Factors: Focus on Japanese Beer Demand Structure
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Type
Academic journal
Author
Tsuyoshi Kurihara (Certified and accredited meteorologist) Takaaki Kawanaka (The University of Tokyo) Hiroshi Yamashita (Meiji University)
Journal
Korean Institute Of Industrial Engineers Industrial Engineering & Management Systems Vol.18 No.4 KCI Accredited Journals SCOPUS
Published
2019.12
Pages
761 - 775 (15page)
DOI
10.7232/iems.2019.18.4.761

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A Weighted Additive Model for the Whole Demand Analysis of a Seasonally Dependent Product Using Meteorological and Regional Data, Considering Social Customs Factors and Policy Factors: Focus on Japanese Beer Demand Structure
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In general, seasonally dependent products such as home air conditioners and beer are difficult to produce in a timely manner to respond to demand because of the large seasonal fluctuations in demand. However, if highly accurate demand analysis/forecast is possible, production preparation for responding to demand fluctuations will be easier. Therefore, as a basis for such a demand analysis/forecast, to analyze the whole (nationwide) demand for a seasonally dependent product, this paper proposes a new weighted additive model for the whole demand analysis of a seasonally dependent product, i.e., Japanese beer, using meteorological and regional data, considering “regional characteristics of climate” and “regional homogeneity of demand together,” with the further addition of social customs factors, policy factors, and a demand trend. Using the alternating least squares method, we attempt parameter estimation for the model with an inseparable parameter group generated by expressing “regional characteristics of climate” and “regional homogeneity of demand” together as a product of mutually independent factors (meteorological and regional factors). The results show that the proposed model is valid and provides insight into the effects of the factors influencing demand.
#Demand Fluctuation #Meteorological Elements #Regional Characteristics #Regional Homogeneity Inseparable Parameter Structures #Alternating Least Squares

Contents

ABSTRACT
1. INTRODUCTION
2. LITERATURE OVERVIEW
3. BEER DEMAND AND ITS FACTORS IN JAPAN
4. STUDY METHOD
5. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
6. CONCLUSION
REFERENCES

References (8)

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Sapporo Breweries / Shuzei-ho to wa? (What is the Japanese liquor tax act?) google schola Shiskin, J. / Tests and revisions of the bureau of census methods of seasonal adjustments google schola Takane, Y. / 1976 / Shinri-gaku ni okeru hi-keiryou deta no kaiseki (Nonmetric Data Analysis in Psychology) google schola Takane, Y. / 1980 / An individual differences additive model : An alterating least squares method with optimal scaling features / Psychometrika 45(2):183~209 google schola Tamiya, H. / 1995 / Handbook of Meteorology / Asakura Shoten :365~370 google schola

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