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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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The purpose of this paper is to estimate the dynamic effects of the exchange rate shocks on the trade balance and to determine whether there is a level relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants in the Korea economy. Design/Methodology/Approach To do that, we adopt the ARDL approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). And then we estimate the impulse response functions of the trade balance due to the unexpected exchange rate based on the estimated error correction model and the traditional VAR models. It is known that the methodology of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) is applicable irrespective of whether the underying regressors are purely I(0), purely I(1), or mutually cointegrated. Findings Our estimation results shows that after the unexpected appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, the trade balance improves instantaneously and remains positive in the relatively long run. Also, the results of this paper indicates that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance. But there is no J-curve effects in the Korea Economy. Research Implications Since our estimation results indicate the causal relation between the variables, our results have the implications for the economic policy conducted by the government authority.
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참고문헌 (16)
참고문헌 신청
Bahmani-Oskoose, M. / 2006 / Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U. S. Trade Flows : Evidence from Industry Data / Southern Economic Journal 72(3):542~559
Bahmani-Oskoose, M. / 2009 / The J-curve in the Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe / Applied Economics 41:2523~2532
Dickey, D. / 1979 / Distribution of the Estimate for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root / Journal of the American Statistcal Association 74:427~431
Doldado, J. / 1990 / Cointegration and Unit Roots / Journal of Economic Surveys 4:249~273
Gupta-Kapoor, A. / 1999 / Is There a J-curve? A New Estimation for Japan / International Economic Journal 13(4):71~79
Bahmani-Oskoose, M. / 2009 / The J-curve in the Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe / Applied Economics 41:2523~2532
Dickey, D. / 1979 / Distribution of the Estimate for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root / Journal of the American Statistcal Association 74:427~431
Doldado, J. / 1990 / Cointegration and Unit Roots / Journal of Economic Surveys 4:249~273
Gupta-Kapoor, A. / 1999 / Is There a J-curve? A New Estimation for Japan / International Economic Journal 13(4):71~79
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