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Causality Between Sales Price of Housing Index and Consumer Sentiment Index : Impact on Korea(South) and China
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주택매매가격지수와 소비자심리지수 간의 인과관계 분석 : 한국과 중국을 중심으로

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
현대중국학회 현대중국연구 현대중국연구 제15권 제1호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2013.1
Pages
175 - 210 (36page)

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Causality Between Sales Price of Housing Index and Consumer Sentiment Index : Impact on Korea(South) and China
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Since an economical revolution in 1978 and an employment of an open door policy, China’s economy has grown at an exponential rate, scoring the second biggest economy of the world next to the U.S.. As real estate investment started to play a major role in its domestic economy, the price rate for real estate in China has significantly increased, and its size of development has expanded more than 20 percent a year on average since 1990s. It is expected that the economic exchange between South Korea and China has been active both in its quality and size, and will increase every year. Considering the size that the economy of China takes up the global economy, it has quickly become very important to focus on studying the effect of China’s economy to the world with its fast paced growth. Be one step ahead Korean government, National Bureau of Statistics of China released its Customer Sentiment Index[CSI] and made it an important indicator of its economic flow. In real estate market, although there are multiple macro economic indexes, predicting the economic change is very difficult. Recently, several researches report that the sentiment of real estate investment participants can affect its market, and these researches that study the relationship between consumer sentiment and economic change have been active both domestically and internationally. This research was conducted between July 2008 to Feb 2013 and its focus of study involves the extent of Housing Price Index of each city affecting the both country’s CSI, the shaping factors of market interval and its reasoning, using Housing Price Index and Time Series Analysis of selected city in each country: Seoul, Pusan, and Incheon for South Korea, and Beijing, Shanghai, and Qingdao for China. In this research, chapter I discusses the objectives and background of this study, chapter II for advanced research on the relationship between housing market and consumer sentiment, and chapter III consists of a brief definition of CSI, an overview of the economies in both nations based on several economic indicators, and thus the foundation of the basis for an empirical study. Chapter IV measures the relevant factors, in an attempt to explain the relationship between housing market and consumer sentiment. Finally, chapter V summarizes the result of analysis and proposes the future research objectives.
#주택매매가격지수 #소비자심리지수(소비자동향지수) #교차상관분석 #그랜져인과관계검정 #충격반응분석 #Sales Price Index #Consumer Confidence Index #Cross Correlation Test #Granger Casuality Test #Impulse Responses

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왕세종 / 2004 / 수도권 아파트 가격의 지역 간 상관관계 분석 / 주택금융월보 google schola 정의철 / 2010 / 소비자 심리가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석 - 주택매매가격을 중심으로 - / 부동산학연구 16(3):5~20 dbpia 이형욱 / 2009 / 우리나라 대도시의 주택가격지수 변화 패턴 분석 dbpia 송경섭 / 2011 / 부동산시장의 주택매매가격지수와 주식시장의 종합주가지수 및 산업별지수와의 관계 연구 dbpia 이기영 / 2012 / 중국 주택가격 지수간의 상호관계 실증연구 -2008년 금융위기 전후 비교 중심으로- / 부동산학보 (50):221~235 google schola

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