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자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
전인식 (건국대학교) 오영민 (Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology Ansan Korea) 장기호 (National Typhoon Center Seogwipo Korea)
저널정보
한국연안방재학회 한국연안방재학회지 한국연안방재학회지 제2권 제3호
발행연도
2015.1
수록면
142 - 153 (12page)

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Increases in sea water temperature along typhoon tracks due to global warming are known to intensify typhoons. Moreover, there has been concern that global climate change may alter other typhoon parameters, including forward speed and track. In the present study, several west–east transect lines were preset around the Korean Peninsula to allow sampling of the parameters of typhoons crossing the transect lines. A tension spline interpolation technique was applied to the best-track data of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo of the WMO. Then, a trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall method for representative annual typhoons for three parameters: central pressure, maximum sustained speed, and forward speed. Furthermore, recent change in the frequency of westward typhoons was also analyzed. The results demonstrate that the central pressure exhibits an annually decreasing trend with a probability of 86.5%, at least in the prescribed southernmost transect line. However, this probability decreased drastically toward the north. The maximum sustained wind speed of the annual representative wind exhibits a similar pattern to the central pressure, but with an increasing trend. In contrast, the forward speed exhibits more significant decreasing trends, particularly along the land-based transect lines, with probabilities exceeding 80%. Finally, the number of westward typhoons was found to have increased considerably after 2000; moreover, these typhoons maintained their power much further north than previous westward typhoons.

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