목차

목차 ··································································································································ⅰ
요약 ··································································································································ⅳ
표 목차 ··························································································································ⅴ
그림 목차 ························································································································ⅵ
I. 서론 ································································································································1
1. 연구 목적 및 배경 ·····································································································1
2. 연구 범위 및 내용 ·····································································································2
II. 분기기 시스템 및 고장 분석 이론 ·········································································3
1. 분기기 시스템
1.1 선로전환기 구성 ·····································································································3
1.2 밀착검지기 구성 ·····································································································6
2. 밀착검지기 ···················································································································8
2.1 제어부 및 센서부 구조 ·······················································································8
2.2 고장분석 ·················································································································11
2.2.1 고장 발생 영향 ··································································································11
2.2.2 고장 발생 체크리스트 ······················································································12
2.3 결함수 분석(FTA) ·······························································································14
2.3.1 밀착검지기 결함수 분석 ················································································15
2.3.2 검지별 고장모드 분석 ····················································································19
3. 고장분포 ·····················································································································20
3.1 고장률 함수 ···········································································································20
3.2 지수분포(Exponential distribution) ····································································22
3.3 정규분포(Normal distribution) ············································································24
3.4 와이블분포(Weibull distribution) ·······································································26
3.5 베이지안 추론(Bayesian inference) ··································································30
3.5.1 우도(Likelihood) ·································································································33
3.6 확률분포 선정 ·······································································································35
4. 욕조곡선 ·····················································································································36
4.1 욕조곡선 특성 ·······································································································36
4.2 고장분포와 욕조곡선 ···························································································39
III. 밀착검지기 한계수명 예측 ····················································································40
1. Bath Curve 고장 구간 ····························································································40
2. Weibull 분포와 욕조곡선 ······················································································40
2.1 마모고장(IFR) 시작점 예측 ················································································42
2.2 확률지에 의한 욕조곡선 고장점 예측 ·····························································44
3. 밀착검지기 고장데이터 ·························································································46
4. 수명예측 ·····················································································································48
4.1 형상모수에 대한 사전분포 예측 ·········································································48
4.2 베이지안 수명 예측 ·······························································································50
4.3 한계수명(Life expectancy) 예측 ·········································································52
IV. 실험결과 ·················································································································54
1. 필드 데이터 ···············································································································54
1.1 필드 데이터 수집 대상 ·····················································································54
1.2 밀착검지기 주요 고장분석 ·················································································54
2. 분포 적합도 및 확률분포 검정 ·············································································58
2.1 140대 적합도 분석 및 유의성 검정 ·································································59
2.2 본선과 측선 적합도 분석 및 유의성 검정 ·····················································61
2.3 10회 미만과 80회 이상 적합도 분석 및 유의성 검정 ·································64
3. 욕조곡선 예측 데이터 ·····························································································67
3.1 본선과 측선 욕조곡선 예측 ···············································································67
3.2 10회 미만과 80회 이상 욕조곡선 예측 ···························································70
4. 베이지안 수명 및 사후분포에 대한 한계수명 예측 ·········································72
4.1 사전분포에 대한 형상모수 예측 ·······································································72
4.2 140대 와이블분포와 베이지안 수명 비교분석 ···············································74
4.3 본선과 측선 와이블분포와 베이지안 수명 비교분석 ···································77
4.4 10회 미만과 80회 이상 와이블분포와 베이지안 수명 비교분석 ···············81
4.5 사후분포에 대한 한계수명 예측 ·······································································85
Ⅴ. 결론 및 향후 연구 ·································································································88
참고문헌 ··························································································································89
영문초록(Abstract) ·········································································································91
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