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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
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Agricultural product prices have been fluctuated greatly even though agricultural markets are almost perfectly competitive in the sense that there are numerous suppliers. This unstable agricultural product prices are due to the agricultural market inefficiencies; the agricultural market inefficiencies have been caused mainly by the large fluctuations of supply, for which the miscalculations of expected prices have mainly responsible. Therefore, if the expected prices of agricultural products have been formed rationally and reasonably, the agricultural prices have been stable. In this respect, this paper considers how we could improve the agricultural market efficiency through the smooth movement of agricultural production, and what the effects are.
In this paper, we select three agricultural products, of which the prices have been most unstable over the past 20 years; garlic, onion, and red pepper. We find that the prices of these three products have been fluctuated by over 40% on the average, and that the movements of change rates of price and production are almost exactly counter-cyclical, which is the good proof of the agricultural production depends mainly on the last year's price. In this sense, we estimate the expected prices of the above three agricultural products using adaptive expectation model, estimate the adjusted production and prices through the calculated expected prices, and discuss the differences and effects of real prices and estimated expected prices. The data used for the estimation in this paper arc annual time-series data from 1965 to 1993.
The major findings in this paper are as follows. First, according to the estimation results of price equations, the price elasticities of incame of garlic, onion, and red pepper are 1.93, 1.82, and 1.32, respectively. And the estimated price elasticities of the amount of production range from 0.94 to 1.32, which show the sensible responses of price to the amount of
production. Second, the estimated supply equations of the above three crops show good fitting as well as reasonable economic sense, and the estimated production elasticities of last year's price are from 0.2 to 0.47. This again supports the argument that the amount of production depends mainly on the last year's price. Third, the adjusted and real prices of the above three products from 1971 to 1993 show more than 25% differences on the average, and the movements of adjusted price are a lot more smooth than those of real prices. These results emphasize the importance of the reasonable and accurate formations of expected prices. Fourth, the estimated average effect of adjusted prices on the CPI from 1971 to 1993 is 0.34%, which is almost double the weights of the above three crops in CPl. And the estimated farm-income effect of adjusted amounts of production is about 0.87% on the average, which is also greater than the weights. From these above major findings in this paper, we conclude that the reasonably formed expected price could reduce the gap between demand and supply in the agricultural products market, and thus could bring a lot more stable agricultural prices.
In this paper, we select three agricultural products, of which the prices have been most unstable over the past 20 years; garlic, onion, and red pepper. We find that the prices of these three products have been fluctuated by over 40% on the average, and that the movements of change rates of price and production are almost exactly counter-cyclical, which is the good proof of the agricultural production depends mainly on the last year's price. In this sense, we estimate the expected prices of the above three agricultural products using adaptive expectation model, estimate the adjusted production and prices through the calculated expected prices, and discuss the differences and effects of real prices and estimated expected prices. The data used for the estimation in this paper arc annual time-series data from 1965 to 1993.
The major findings in this paper are as follows. First, according to the estimation results of price equations, the price elasticities of incame of garlic, onion, and red pepper are 1.93, 1.82, and 1.32, respectively. And the estimated price elasticities of the amount of production range from 0.94 to 1.32, which show the sensible responses of price to the amount of
production. Second, the estimated supply equations of the above three crops show good fitting as well as reasonable economic sense, and the estimated production elasticities of last year's price are from 0.2 to 0.47. This again supports the argument that the amount of production depends mainly on the last year's price. Third, the adjusted and real prices of the above three products from 1971 to 1993 show more than 25% differences on the average, and the movements of adjusted price are a lot more smooth than those of real prices. These results emphasize the importance of the reasonable and accurate formations of expected prices. Fourth, the estimated average effect of adjusted prices on the CPI from 1971 to 1993 is 0.34%, which is almost double the weights of the above three crops in CPl. And the estimated farm-income effect of adjusted amounts of production is about 0.87% on the average, which is also greater than the weights. From these above major findings in this paper, we conclude that the reasonably formed expected price could reduce the gap between demand and supply in the agricultural products market, and thus could bring a lot more stable agricultural prices.
목차
Ⅰ. 序論
Ⅱ. 經濟作物의 特性
Ⅲ. 經濟作物의 價格 및 供給函數
Ⅳ. 物價 및 農家所得效果 分析
Ⅴ. 要約 및 結論
參考文獻
附錄
Abstract
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