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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 연구보고서
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2007.1
- 수록면
- 2 - 2 (91page)
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The Council on East Asian Affairs (CEAA), sponsored by the East Asia Foundation and Russia’s Far Eastern National University, jointly hosted the “ROK-Russia Economic Cooperation in Northeast Asia” seminar in Vladivostok on June 1, 2007. The meeting was the second ROK-Russia seminar organized by the CEAA, succeeding the “Russia-Korea Cooperation for Peace and Prosperity in Northeast Asia” seminar held in Moscow in November 2006. The latest conference brought together a group of 50 participants that included experts from the fields of energy, railroad, agriculture and the automobile industry from South Korea and Russia, as well as politicians, scholars and bureaucrats. The program was a part of CEAA’s project to organize crucial international conferences, which allow participants to discuss policies and working level issues. This provides an informal channel to share views, and enables operating related programs to help expand mutual understanding.
In the latest seminar, the presenters and the panelists from both countries broadly agreed that the basic environment for economic cooperation between South Korea and Russia is improving. In particular, Russia’s renewed focus on the economic development of the Far East region was pointed out as a positive factor that could facilitate the country’s economic cooperation with South Korea. A Russian presenter suggested that there is an increasing belief among Russian policymakers that the country’s future hangs on the economic development of the Far East and East Siberia regions. There is also an emphasis on Russia’s role as a bridge between Asia and Europe. If such observations are valid, it would be safe to say that the preconditions for the economic development of the Far East and East Siberia regions, which present the greatest opportunity for economic cooperation with South Korea, are starting to mature. For instance, after Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in late 2006 that the economic development of the Far East region would be crucial for the country’s national security, policymakers have been taking concrete actions for the development of the Far East and East Siberia. One of them is the move to host the 2012 APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Vladivostok, which will serve both as a symbolic and substantial stimulant for initiating regional development.
The ROK-Russia seminar also exposed significant differences of opinion between the participants from both sides, especially during the discussions on why the current efforts for economic cooperation have yet to produce significant results. Most of the South Korean and Russian experts participating in the seminar agreed that the joint efforts for economic cooperation between the two countries have produced little substantial results despite their great potential. Some of the participants explained this as a result of the passive approach taken by the South Korean government and companies toward investing in Russia. South Koreans were portrayed to be still concerned about the risks of investing in Russia, despite the fact that Moscow is separating itself from the political and economic instability of the past, and is showing sufficient potential as an investment target. This has been evidenced by the huge influx of foreign direct investment to the country in recent years. Supporters of this view insist that if South Korea fails to commit to investing in Russia now, the joint economic projects discussed between the two countries will never get the chance to materialize. However, other participants suggested that Russia’s commitment would be equally as crucial as South Korea’s for economic cooperation to deliver on its potential. According to this view, major projects discussed under the initiatives for economic cooperation, such as developing energy resources or building transportation infrastructure, are high-risk business projects and the Russian government must be committed in finding a way to lower the risk for South Korean investors. The stagnant progress of the Kovykta natural gas project in East Siberia, a tri-nation project that involves South Korea and China, was pointed out as a notable example of this problem. The participants claimed that the Russian government’s sudden changes in policies have prevented the project from moving forward, despite the three countries having already completed the feasibility tests. The Russian government’s inconsistent policies are also to blame for curbing the enthusiasm for South Korean companies to participate in the project to build oil pipelines in East Siberia.
The comments by South Korean and Russian experts in the seminar made it clear that economic cooperation between the two countries is more than just a matter of particular projects, but also an issue of more comprehensive bilateral relations between the two countries. Comments such as “in the end, we need determination from the leaders of both countries” or “we need to reach a common perception that South Korea and Russia are strategic partners” were made by the participants from both sides. This reflects the view that economic cooperation cannot be considered separately from the issues of political and diplomatic relations. For South Korea, major economic cooperation projects with Russia become more of a matter of politics and diplomacy, as they can be deeply connected with economic cooperation efforts with North Korea. Projects such as connecting the Trans-Siberian Railroad (TSR) with the Trans-Korean Railroad (TKR) or constructing an energy transport route (oil pipelines, natural gas pipelines and more recently, electricity transmission) between South Korea and Russia require traversing North Korean territory, which makes them important and complicated issues for South Korea.
In discussions about South Korea and Russia’s agricultural cooperation in the Russian Far East, the South Korean participants revealed significant interest in the possible use of North Korean labor in the area and providing the agriculture products as food support to North Korea. In the general discussions, a South Korean participant suggested that South Korea purchase the rights for long-term rental of farming lands in the Far East using debt owed it by Russia. Such an idea would force the revisiting of the old issue of North Korea’s debt to Russia and how to offset it.
For Russia as well, economic cooperation is more than just an economic matter but also a political and diplomatic issue, although to a lesser degree than South Korea. Railroad construction, energy development and other major projects of the economic cooperation efforts are critical for Russia in the economic development of the Far East region. But they also provide important leverage in strengthening the country’s political and economic position in Northeast Asia. In the ROK-Russia seminar, some Russian participants suggested that using the East Siberian pipelines only for providing oil to China would “strategically unacceptable” and, as mentioned before, claimed that the determination from the leaders of both South Korea and Russia would be critical in pushing forward the efforts for further economic cooperation. Such comments from the Russian participants reflect the view that some parts of the economic cooperation between the two countries must be handled at a negotiation table between the two governments, not the market.
Needless to say, the subjects of the seminar was not limited to the political and diplomatic issues between South Korea and Russia, and the participants shared new views and ideas on the economic prospects of many joint projects. For example, in a presentation about the project to connect the TSR and the TKR, a Russian participant suggested it would take 5 to 7 billion dollars to modernize the North Korean part of the rail route. A South Korean participant criticizing this analysis showed that the issue could develop into a new subject of debate in the framework of the TSR-TKR connection project. As for the new subject of agricultural cooperation, participants from both countries were able to come to a meaningful conclusion on the complementary relationship between South Korea and the Russian Far East in the agricultural sector. There were also interesting debates on South Korean automakers advancing to the Russian Far East, and the need for the Russian government to legally regulate the use of righthandled cars. Participants from both countries agreed that the increasing household income in the Far East region and its effect on auto demand would be a determining factor for South Korean companies advancing in the region.
In the latest seminar, the presenters and the panelists from both countries broadly agreed that the basic environment for economic cooperation between South Korea and Russia is improving. In particular, Russia’s renewed focus on the economic development of the Far East region was pointed out as a positive factor that could facilitate the country’s economic cooperation with South Korea. A Russian presenter suggested that there is an increasing belief among Russian policymakers that the country’s future hangs on the economic development of the Far East and East Siberia regions. There is also an emphasis on Russia’s role as a bridge between Asia and Europe. If such observations are valid, it would be safe to say that the preconditions for the economic development of the Far East and East Siberia regions, which present the greatest opportunity for economic cooperation with South Korea, are starting to mature. For instance, after Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in late 2006 that the economic development of the Far East region would be crucial for the country’s national security, policymakers have been taking concrete actions for the development of the Far East and East Siberia. One of them is the move to host the 2012 APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Vladivostok, which will serve both as a symbolic and substantial stimulant for initiating regional development.
The ROK-Russia seminar also exposed significant differences of opinion between the participants from both sides, especially during the discussions on why the current efforts for economic cooperation have yet to produce significant results. Most of the South Korean and Russian experts participating in the seminar agreed that the joint efforts for economic cooperation between the two countries have produced little substantial results despite their great potential. Some of the participants explained this as a result of the passive approach taken by the South Korean government and companies toward investing in Russia. South Koreans were portrayed to be still concerned about the risks of investing in Russia, despite the fact that Moscow is separating itself from the political and economic instability of the past, and is showing sufficient potential as an investment target. This has been evidenced by the huge influx of foreign direct investment to the country in recent years. Supporters of this view insist that if South Korea fails to commit to investing in Russia now, the joint economic projects discussed between the two countries will never get the chance to materialize. However, other participants suggested that Russia’s commitment would be equally as crucial as South Korea’s for economic cooperation to deliver on its potential. According to this view, major projects discussed under the initiatives for economic cooperation, such as developing energy resources or building transportation infrastructure, are high-risk business projects and the Russian government must be committed in finding a way to lower the risk for South Korean investors. The stagnant progress of the Kovykta natural gas project in East Siberia, a tri-nation project that involves South Korea and China, was pointed out as a notable example of this problem. The participants claimed that the Russian government’s sudden changes in policies have prevented the project from moving forward, despite the three countries having already completed the feasibility tests. The Russian government’s inconsistent policies are also to blame for curbing the enthusiasm for South Korean companies to participate in the project to build oil pipelines in East Siberia.
The comments by South Korean and Russian experts in the seminar made it clear that economic cooperation between the two countries is more than just a matter of particular projects, but also an issue of more comprehensive bilateral relations between the two countries. Comments such as “in the end, we need determination from the leaders of both countries” or “we need to reach a common perception that South Korea and Russia are strategic partners” were made by the participants from both sides. This reflects the view that economic cooperation cannot be considered separately from the issues of political and diplomatic relations. For South Korea, major economic cooperation projects with Russia become more of a matter of politics and diplomacy, as they can be deeply connected with economic cooperation efforts with North Korea. Projects such as connecting the Trans-Siberian Railroad (TSR) with the Trans-Korean Railroad (TKR) or constructing an energy transport route (oil pipelines, natural gas pipelines and more recently, electricity transmission) between South Korea and Russia require traversing North Korean territory, which makes them important and complicated issues for South Korea.
In discussions about South Korea and Russia’s agricultural cooperation in the Russian Far East, the South Korean participants revealed significant interest in the possible use of North Korean labor in the area and providing the agriculture products as food support to North Korea. In the general discussions, a South Korean participant suggested that South Korea purchase the rights for long-term rental of farming lands in the Far East using debt owed it by Russia. Such an idea would force the revisiting of the old issue of North Korea’s debt to Russia and how to offset it.
For Russia as well, economic cooperation is more than just an economic matter but also a political and diplomatic issue, although to a lesser degree than South Korea. Railroad construction, energy development and other major projects of the economic cooperation efforts are critical for Russia in the economic development of the Far East region. But they also provide important leverage in strengthening the country’s political and economic position in Northeast Asia. In the ROK-Russia seminar, some Russian participants suggested that using the East Siberian pipelines only for providing oil to China would “strategically unacceptable” and, as mentioned before, claimed that the determination from the leaders of both South Korea and Russia would be critical in pushing forward the efforts for further economic cooperation. Such comments from the Russian participants reflect the view that some parts of the economic cooperation between the two countries must be handled at a negotiation table between the two governments, not the market.
Needless to say, the subjects of the seminar was not limited to the political and diplomatic issues between South Korea and Russia, and the participants shared new views and ideas on the economic prospects of many joint projects. For example, in a presentation about the project to connect the TSR and the TKR, a Russian participant suggested it would take 5 to 7 billion dollars to modernize the North Korean part of the rail route. A South Korean participant criticizing this analysis showed that the issue could develop into a new subject of debate in the framework of the TSR-TKR connection project. As for the new subject of agricultural cooperation, participants from both countries were able to come to a meaningful conclusion on the complementary relationship between South Korea and the Russian Far East in the agricultural sector. There were also interesting debates on South Korean automakers advancing to the Russian Far East, and the need for the Russian government to legally regulate the use of righthandled cars. Participants from both countries agreed that the increasing household income in the Far East region and its effect on auto demand would be a determining factor for South Korean companies advancing in the region.
목차
Executive Summary
서문(Предисловие)
1. 세미나 개요(Краткое изложение семинара)
2. 각 세션의 논점 및 내용 요약(Предмет дискуссий в каждойсекции и краткие выводы)
3. 종합평가와 분석(Общая оценка и анализ)
4. 한러 경제협력 활성화를 위한 정책과제(Политические задачи необходимые для активизации - корейско российского экономического сотрудничества)
참석자 명단(List of Participants and Observers)
러시아어 번역문
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