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대외경제정책연구원 [KIEP] 북경사무소브리핑 북경사무소브리핑 제1155권
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2017.3
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What is the cause of the rapid recovery of the US after the financial crisis compared to other advanced countries, and how will the US’s medium- and long-term growth be followed? It is one of the most important questions about the recent US economy. The purpose of this study is to present the analysis of these problems and to examine the implications of US economic recovery and mid - to long - term growth on Korea. First, after the financial crisis, the US economy is recovering faster than other developed countries such as Japan and Europe. On the back of this recovery, the US is trying to normalize its monetary policy by moving away from zero interest rate. However, other developed countries such as Japan and Europe are still trying to stimulate the economy through easing monetary policies such as quantitative easing. As shown in various data, during the 2008-2009 financial crisis period, the real GDP of each country has recovered slowly after a sharp decline, but it is recovering differently in each country. In the case of the United States, it shows a rapid recovery compared to Japan and Europe. One thing to keep in mind is that the recovery rate from the financial crisis period until 2011 is not much different among US, Japan and Europe, but the recovery of Europe and Japan has stagnated since 2011. As a result, in the US, GDP in the first quarter of 2015 is about 10% higher than in the first quarter of 2007, but in Japan and Europe, GDP in the first quarter of 2015 is only about 1-2% higher than the first quarter of 2007. On the other hand, despite the rapid recovery compared to other developed countries, there are still many people who doubt the mid- to long-term growth path of the US economy. In the mid-to-long term, the growth potential of the US is limited to mid-1%, and economists such as Larry Summers and Paul Krugman are questioning the US’s long-term growth by insisting on the US’s structural stagnation. In particular, Gordon presented a very pessimistic analysis of the US mid- to long-term economic growth. His analysis suggests that the United States’ mid- to long-term growth prospects are not bright due to the US structural problem such as aging population and low productivity. The impact of the US mid- to long-term growth path on the future growth of the global economy is crucial in light of the US weighting in the global economy. Especially, in the case of Korea, export is still a large part of the economy, and the mid- to long-term growth of the global economy is a big part of Korea’s mid- to long-term growth. Aside from this, the United States is the second largest export destination of Korea after China, and it is highly likely that the US economic growth will directly affect Korea. In addition, the rapid recovery of the United States relative to other advanced countries after the financial crisis is highly suggestive of Korea’s growth and economic deregulation policies. In Korea, it has been experiencing a steady decline in growth rate since the financial crisis, and its potential growth rate has also been falling. In this situation, it is important to find a way to accelerate economic recovery through benchmarking of US growth policy, which is recovering faster than other advanced countries. The purpose of this study is that analyzes the possibility of mid-to-long term growth of the United States to provide a foundation for Korea’s mid-to-long term foreign strategy. Furthermore, we try to find the reasons behind the rapid recovery of the US after the financial crisis and to provide its implications on the growth strategy for the Korea economy. In Chapter 2, we analyze the US economic growth rate and examine whether the US economy has experienced in structural changes. As a result of the analysis, structural changes in the US economy, measured by the decline in trend growth, took place in early 2000, before the financial crisis, and the financial crisis accelerated the decline in this trend growth to some extent. In general economic theories, the impact on trend growth is known to be largely influenced by supply side factors such as technology progress and labor supply. Based on these facts, we analyzed the supply side factors such as total factor productivity and labor supply factors in Chapters 3 and 4. In Chapter 3, we use the growth accounting method to diagnose whether the US will grow in the medium to long term. Growth accounting is a method for analyzing the effects of supply side factors such as labor supply, total factor productivity, and labor quality on mid- and long-term growth, and is particularly appropriate for analyzing the impact of trend growth decline analyzed in Chapter 2. The results of the analysis are as follows. According to the labor supply factors such as the degree of population aging and the quality of education, and productivity, the US economic potential growth rate is found to range from 1.4% to 2.9% on average by 2060 unless the effects of the aging of the population are reduced or rapid increase in productivity due to the recent 4th industrial revolution. Especially, in case of population aging, the average annual growth rate is reduced by about 0.17%p. Chapter 4 tries to explain why the US is recovering faster than other developed countries after the financial crisis, despite the mid- to long-term growth is uncertain through dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model). In particular, we have constructed a model in which the growth and supply side factors have a great impact on the economic cycle. Based on this model, we examined the impact of the decline in trend growth on the economic recovery and searched for the reasons for the rapid recovery of the US. US productivity is recovering faster than other countries after the financial crisis. The results of the DSGE analysis show that the recovery of productivity reduces the decline of trend growth and the this better trend growth is positive for current consumption and investment through expectation of future income increase. This rapid US productivity recovery can be attributed to the large-scale national R&D initiated during and after the financial crisis, and the large-scale increase in aggregate demand through general fiscal spending has also contributed to productivity growth. In addition, continuous policy implementation is important in the case of attempting to increase the aggregate demand through the management of trend growth or fiscal policy through investment of national R&D. If these policies are suspended or canceled in the middle, in the worst case, it seems to have a negative impact on the economic recovery. Based on these discussions, Chapter 5 examined the policies of the Obama administration during the financial crisis period and until the recent years. In particular, the specific details of the policies that led to the recovery of productivity presented in Chapter 4 - National R&D policies and large scale fiscal stimulus package - were summarized to help establish the actual policies. Chapter 6 summarized the discussions and the policy implications for Korea are derived. The policy implications suggested in this paper can be divided into two major categories. The first is about the establishment of foreign policy based on the mid-to-long term growth of the United States. The second is about the establishment of Korea’s growth policy, which is based on fase recovery speed of US. First, the implications for the mid-to-long term foreign policy are as follows. The US is Korea’s second largest export market and has a large impact on the global economy. The Korean economy is still highly dependent on exports. Considering this point, we need to diversify export market, increase export unit price through development of high value-added products, and develop core goods that are less affected by economic fluctuations, Also, it is necessary to establish a so-called two-track strategy to reduce the export dependency of the Korean economy through the revitalization of the domestic market. In addition, Korea’s mid-to-long term growth strategy suggestions are as follows. As a result of supply side analyzing of the growth rate of Korea, the recent decline in growth rate caused by productivity decline, decrease of capital accumulation, and low contribution of labor supply. Therefore, it is necessary to implement investment promotion policy similar to productivity improvement and innovation-related policies which are actively promoted by the Obama administration. In addition, the low contribution of labor supply to GDP, despite the long working hours among the OECD countries, is an urgent task to be solved. Finally, implications for national R&D policy for mid-to-long term growth are as follows. Korea’s R&D spending is quantitatively the top among OECD countries. On the other hand, the volatility of R & D spending is high and uncertainty is higher than the US. Uncertainty as a result of increased volatility in R&D expenditure may result in lower efficiency of R&D spending by hindering researchers’ stable research as shown in Chapter 4. In the United States, efforts are being made to secure the permanence of the R&D by enacting the Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes Act (PATH) Act of 2015. In Korea, it is important to benchmark such a system to ensure the sustainability of R&D investment and raise efficiency. This study is meaningful to analyze the US economy in terms of supply side and draw implications for the Korean economy. Although there are some articles analyzing the US recovery after the financial crisis, they are all focused on the analysis of the demand side. Furthermore, there are few studies that provide policy implications for Korea. This study provides a new perspective on the recovery of the US economy and mid-and-long term growth by identifying the reasons for the rapid recovery after the financial crisis and the mid-to-long term growth of the US through supply side decomposition. In addition, this study is different from the previous studies because it provides implication of the growth path of US on the Korea economy.

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