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Determinant Factors of Experts' Real Estate Market Forecasting
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전문가의 부동산시장 예측에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
Korea Real Estate Analysts Association(Kreaa) 부동산학연구 부동산학연구 제14권 제2호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2008.1
Pages
117 - 130 (14page)

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Determinant Factors of Experts' Real Estate Market Forecasting
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Abstract· Keywords

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In Korea, the real estate experts’ prediction of real estate price change has been used as an important tool in forecasting real estate market change. Though some econometric models such as Vector Autoregressive Model are used basically, experts' interview played a significant role in prospecting the near future real estate market change. It is due to the fact that Korea has experienced frequent change of real estate policy and the econometric models have become useless sometimes. This paper explores the determinant factors affecting experts’ forecasting of future real estate market in order to improve the accuracy. The main results are as follows: First, the main factors affecting prediction are their view of regional housing market and their occupation. In other words, the experts who predict pessimistically on regional housing market tend to expect price decrease of national housing market. Second, the demographic characteristics including age and sex do not have significant effect on their prediction. The results imply that we have to consider regional market condition when we interpret the experts’ market forecasting.
#부동산시장 #가격전망 #실사지수 #Real Estate Market #Price Prediction #Survey Index

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References (13)

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KIM, Jin-Yoo / 2007 / Determinants of Experts' Prospect in Korea Real Estate Market / presented at the 12th Asian Real Estate Society and American Real Estate and Urban Economics google schola 김근용 / 1998 / 주택가격 예측을 위한 모형설정과 검정 / 국토 197 : 54 ~ 61 google schola 김양우 / 1997 / 한국의 단기경제예측 시스템 / 경제분석 3 (3) : 1 ~ 61 google schola 김용순 / 2006 / 부동산시장 조기경보시스템 개선연구 / 건설교통부 google schola 김진유 / 2006 / 부동산시장전망 실사지수(RESI)운영현황 및 개선방향 / HURI FOCUS (20) google schola

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