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A Study on Housing Business Cycle
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주택경기 순환주기 분석

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
한국주택학회 주택연구 주택연구 제13권 제3호 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2005.1
Pages
69 - 95 (27page)

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A Study on Housing Business Cycle
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Abstract· Keywords

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The housing prices have started to increase very rapidly since the end of 2001. As a result, the Korean government has employed a number of policy measures to control the housing market. Real estate policy is very influential for the housing market, but the policy decisions mainly depend on housing sale prices. The timing, method, and strength of the government policy measures for the housing market is determined by systematic analysis. Based on the historical record, this study aims at analyzing the business cycles of the time series in the housing market and the cross-correlations among them. The time series to be analyzed in this empirical study are housing sale and rental price indices, housing construction permit area, housing construction order, housing construction investment, and land price index. More specifically, the purpose of this empirical study is two-fold. The first is to analyze the historical record of the time series under consideration, and to extract their cyclical variations using the HP filter. The second is to test cross-correlations among them. The results from the empirical analysis employed in this study are as follows: the time series are shown to have three cycles since 1987, and are currently in the contraction phase of the third cycle. The analysis of cross-correlations among the series shows that housing rental price, housing construction permit area, and housing construction order lead housing sale price, and that land price lags housing sale price.
#순환주기 #HP 필터 #교차 상관 분석 #Business Cycle #HP filter #Corss-correlation test

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/ 2000b. / 한국 건설시장의 중기 전망 google schola Davidson / 1993 / Estimation and Inference in Econometrics google schola Hodrick, R / 1997 / Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical 4. Investigation 29 (1) : 1 ~ 16 google schola King / 1993 / Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control : 207 ~ 231 google schola Witkiewicz, W / 2002 / The Use of the HP-filter in Constructing Real Estate Cycle Indicators 23 : 65 ~ 87 google schola

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