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Prediction for Future Housing using Delphi Technique
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델파이 기법을 활용한 미래주거예측

논문 기본 정보

Type
Academic journal
Author
Se-Yun An (한밭대학교) Hannah Ju (한밭대학교) So-Yeon Kim (한밭대학교)
Journal
The Korea Contents Society JOURNAL OF THE KOREA CONTENTS ASSOCIATION Vol.20 No.3 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2020.3
Pages
209 - 222 (14page)

Usage

cover
📌
Topic
본 연구는 델파이 기법을 활용하여 주거의 미래 변화를 예측하는 것을 목표로 한다.
📖
Background
4차 산업혁명으로 인한 사회적 요구 변화에 따라 주거환경 변화 예측이 중요하므로, 사회적, 기술적, 경제적 요인을 분석하여 주거에 미치는 요소를 파악하고자 하였다.
🔬
Method
연구는 문헌고찰과 20명의 전문가를 대상으로 한 델파이 기법 설문조사를 통해 진행되었다.
🏆
Result
사회적 가치가 주거 형태와 수요 변화에 지대한 영향을 미칠 것으로 예견되며, 고층 빌딩의 다운사이징 주택 수요 증가와 IoT 기술의 긍정적인 영향이 클 것으로 나타났다.
Prediction for Future Housing using Delphi Technique
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Abstract· Keywords

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The purpose of this paper is to predict the future changes of housing through the Delphi technique. The targets to predict were set by housing type, housing space, housing demand, and architectural technology. The results were as follows: ① The influences of social and value perspectives on the change of housing type, space, and demand would be high, on the other hands, the influence of political perspective would be low. ② In terms of housing type, the increase in demand for downsizing housing for high-rise buildings and the possibility of realizing remote medical support services and homecare using big data are highly predicted. That is, ③ it is anticipated that IoTs will have a significant influences on future housing changes, and ④ enactment of co-housing and related laws by the sharing economy, services for maintenance through the supply of high-rise and high-density homes, housing support for residents, and advanced lease markets by developed architectural technology are expected as anticipated forms of future housing.
#미래주거 #델파이 기법 #미래주거 이슈 #시나리오 #예측방법론 #Future Housing #Delphi Technique #Housing Issue #Scenario #Methodology for Prediction

AI Summary

Topic

본 연구는 델파이 기법을 활용하여 주거의 미래 변화를 예측하는 것을 목표로 한다.

Background

4차 산업혁명으로 인한 사회적 요구 변화에 따라 주거환경 변화 예측이 중요하므로, 사회적, 기술적, 경제적 요인을 분석하여 주거에 미치는 요소를 파악하고자 하였다.

Method

연구는 문헌고찰과 20명의 전문가를 대상으로 한 델파이 기법 설문조사를 통해 진행되었다.

Result

사회적 가치가 주거 형태와 수요 변화에 지대한 영향을 미칠 것으로 예견되며, 고층 빌딩의 다운사이징 주택 수요 증가와 IoT 기술의 긍정적인 영향이 클 것으로 나타났다.

주요내용

Contents

요약
Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 미래주거에 대한 고찰
Ⅲ. 주거 관련 이슈 및 시나리오
Ⅳ. 델파이 기법을 활용한 미래주거예측
Ⅴ. 결론
참고문헌

References (36)

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전하진 / 2018 / 4차 산업혁명 시대의 새로운 주거환경에 관한연구 google schola 이영희 / 1996 / 과학기술과 사회의 상호관계 :1~86 google schola 이용우 / 2011 / 메가트렌드와 국토 미래모습 dbpia 周成載 / 1999 / 델파이조사를 통해 본 국토미래상 전망 / 국토연구 :29~44 dbpia 김대익 / 2005 / 미래도시의 주거단지와 장소성 / 토지와 기술 google schola

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