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A Study on Macroeconomic Variables and Determinants of Housing Retention Period
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거시경제변수와 주택보유기간 결정요인에 관한 연구

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Eunmi Kim (한성대학교) Sangbong Kim (영산대학교)
Journal
한국부동산원 Journal of Real Estate Analysis Vol.5 No.3 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2019.11
Pages
31 - 47 (17page)

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A Study on Macroeconomic Variables and Determinants of Housing Retention Period
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Abstract· Keywords

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This study designates household annual income, total assets, debt-to-asset ratio, price per pyeong, household head age, consumer price index, housing construction completion, mortgage interest rate, and housing purchase price index as independent variables for the purpose of analyzing the determinants of housing retention period, a dependent variable. Given the inputs of time-varying macroeconomic variables, Weibull distribution is used for survival analysis. The subjects of analysis are restricted to ‘owner-occupancy,’ which is divided into single-home owners and second-home owners. The analysis showed that increase in household annual income and total assets increased the probability for selling home among single-home owners, thus reducing the housing retention period. In contrast, as for second-home owners, it was found that increase in debt-to-asset ratio raised the housing selling risk rate. In addition, analysis showed that all the input macroeconomic variables had significant effects on housing retention period. The empirical analysis show that real estate regulations and policies should be operated flexibly according to market conditions so that housing can be supplied smoothly to the market, thereby increasing housing demand.
#Housing retention period #Survival analysis #Weibull distribution #Macroeconomic variable #One household with one house #주택보유기간 #생존분석 #와이블 분포 #거시경제변수 #1가구 1주택

Contents

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 이론적 논의
Ⅲ. 선행연구
Ⅳ. 자료의 구성 및 분석모형
Ⅴ. 실증분석 결과
Ⅵ. 결론 및 시사점
참고문헌
국문초록

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