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An Analysis of the Effects of Macroeconomic Changes and Housing Policy on Housing Market Using a Macro-Econometric Model
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거시경제변동과 주택정책이 주택가격에 미치는 영향 분석 : 거시계량모형을 활용하여

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Yun, Sungjin (Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements) Kim, Kabsung (Yonsei University)
Journal
Korea Planning Association Journal of Korea Planning Association Vol.56 No.4(Wn.257) KCI Excellent Accredited Journal
Published
2021.8
Pages
137 - 152 (16page)

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An Analysis of the Effects of Macroeconomic Changes and Housing Policy on Housing Market Using a Macro-Econometric Model
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The link between housing prices and macroeconomics is growing. Moreover, the effects of housing policy have induced changes within the complex economic system. These changes have created the need for a macro-econometric model to assess housing policy. Studies assessing the effects of housing policy do not reflect the economic structure. Furthermore, macro-economic studies do not often examine the housing sector. Even studies on the real estate sector focus on the impact of housing policy changes on macroeconomics rather than on the housing market itself.
This study analyzes the effects of housing policy using a macroeconomic structure. We establish a macro-econometric model consisting of 25 identities and 23 behavioral equations for four categories. In addition, we simulate eight different scenarios to analyze policy and macroeconomic effects. The analysis shows that the housing production and lending restrictions have downward effects on housing prices. Further, macroeconomic changes due to interest rate cuts, increased liquidity, and fiscal expansion have increased housing prices. However, an appropriate and timely response of housing policy to macroeconomic changes may minimize the problems arising from a sharp increase in housing prices.
#거시계량모형 #주택정책 #거시경제변동 #주택공급 #대출규제 #Macro-Econometric Model #Housing Policy #Macroeconomic Change #Housing Supply #Mortgage Loan Regulation

Contents

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 문헌 고찰
Ⅲ. 거시계량모형의 구축
Ⅳ. 시뮬레이션
Ⅴ. 결론
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References (23)

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곽승준 / 2006 / 부동산정책이 주택가격의변동성 변화에 미치는 영향- 주택가격의 변동성 변화 시점을 중심으로 - / 주택연구 14(2):175~194 dbpia 권대철 / 2010 / 입주자 주거만족도 분석을 통한 건설공공임대주택과 매입공공임대주택정책 비교 연구 / 국토계획 45(4):43~55 dbpia 김성욱 / 2010 / 주택분양시장 추이를 통해서 본 분양가상한제의 의의와 한계: 공분산분석을 이용하여 / 한국지역개발학회지 22(3):97~122 dbpia 김양우 / 1997 / 거시계량경제모형–BOK97 / 경제분석 3(2):1~34 google schola 김유찬 / 2014 / 최근 정부의 주택임대차정책 평가와 임대소득과세를 통한 주거급여 지원 방안 연구 / 조세연구 14(3):101~125 dbpia

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