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The Analysis on the Determinants of Elderly Households' Residential Mobility Plan Using Bivariate Probit Model - The Case of the Elderly Households in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyengsangnam-do -
이변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 노인가구의 주거이동 의사 결정요인 분석 - 부산 · 울산 · 경남 노인가구를 대상으로 -
The Analysis on the Determinants of Elderly Households' Residential Mobility Plan Using Bivariate Probit Model - The Case of the Elderly Households in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyengsangnam-do -
The purpose of the study is to analyze the determinants that affect elderly households’ intention to move and a potential destination (between regions or within a region), with the elderly who resides in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyengsangnam-do, by demographic characteristics, residential environmental characteristics, and economic characteristics, using Korea housing survey. The study uses a bivariate probit model for the analysis, considering the characteristics of dependent variables. The major findings are as followed. First, the variables influencing the elderly households’ intention to move and a potential destination are householder age, housing occupancy type, stress related to housing expense, and value of housing assets. Second, it is found that the variables only affecting the elderly households’ residential mobility plan are householder educational background, the number of household members, housing type, housing area, residential region, housing satisfaction, residential environment satisfaction, National Basic Living Security, and value of total assets. Third, the variable that has significant effects on the elderly households’ potential destination only is retirement status of householder. According to the findings, it is necessary to decide policy priority and prepare housing policy for the elderly households.
본 연구는 주거실태조사 자료를 활용하여 부산 · 울산 · 경남 거주 노인가구를 대상으로 인구사회학적 특성, 주거환경 특성, 경제적 특성에 따른 주거이동 의사 및 주거이동 계획 지역(지역 내 이동, 지역 간 이동) 결정요인을 분석하고자 하였다. 분석은 종속변수의 특성을 고려하여 표본 선택 이변량 프로빗 모형을 활용하였다. 연구의 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 노인가구의 주거이동 의사와 주거이동 계획 지역에 영향을 미치는 변수는 가구주 연령, 주택 점유형태, 주거비 부담정도, 주택 자산으로 나타났다. 둘째, 노인가구의 주거이동 의사에만 유의미한 영향을 미치는 변수는 가구주 학력, 가구원 수, 주택 유형, 주택 면적, 거주 지역, 주택 만족도, 주거환경 만족도, 국민기초생활보장급여 수급가구 여부, 총 자산으로 나타났다. 셋째, 노인가구의 주거이동 계획 지역에만 유의미한 영향을 미치는 변수는 가구주 은퇴 여부로 나타났다. 이를 바탕으로 정책적 우선순위를 도출하여, 노인가구를 대상으로 한 주거정책 수립이 필요하다.
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