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Reinterpretation of Changes in the Total Fertility Rate
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합계출산율 변화에 대한 재이해: 연령별 출산율 변동 방향성 분석을 중심으로

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Type
Academic journal
Author
seong eun choi (대전세종연구원) Young Jun Choi (연세대학교)
Journal
동의대학교 지방자치연구소 공공정책연구 공공정책연구(구 법정리뷰) 제39권 제1호
Published
2022.4
Pages
63 - 85 (23page)

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Reinterpretation of Changes in the Total Fertility Rate
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If the birth rate by age has increased while the number of births and women’s population has decreased compared to the previous year, what policy responses should be followed? In this study, we analyze the demographic profile of each local government through the analysis of the direction type of the birth rate by age. The purpose is to provide more accurate evidence of changes in the total fertility rate by accumulating the basic data of the fluctuation types of the birth rate. Taking the formula of the age-specific fertility rate into account, we create 10 fluctuation types of the fertility rate. Then, we analyze the types of local governments with the top 10% and bottom 10% fertility rates from 2012 to 2018. We found that the increase or decrease in the total fertility rate for each local government should not be simply interpreted. The fact that the total fertility rate ‘increased’ and ‘decreased’ year-on-year for each local government is affected not only by the number of newly-born babies but also by the change in the number of female population, which is a denominator. Therefore, we argue that the total fertility rate should not be considered a simple yardstick for assessing the level of low birth rate policies of each local government.

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