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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2021.11
- 수록면
- 79 - 97 (19page)
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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to present an empirical examination of Korea’s short-run and long-run aggregate demand for the imports and demonstrate estimates of partial elasticities of imports with respect to different components of final expenditure based on quarterly economic data for the period 2000-2020.
Composition/Logic: A Johansen multivariate cointegration is employed on the data of private consumption, expenditure on investment goods, government spending, exports and relative import prices. The augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests and cointegration procedure with Trace and Eigen–value tests are also applied for finding the existence of a cointegration, identifying the long-run relationships among variables in Korea’s import demand function. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to find short-run influences of components on the aggregate import demand.
Findings: The results of both the multivariate cointegration procedure and the short-run error correction model suggest that the variables are all cointegrated and there exist significant differences among the long-run partial elasticities of imports with reference to different factors of final expenditure and relative import prices. Partial elasticities with respect to the expenditure on investment goods, exports and import prices are reported to be positive while imports seems to move negatively to changes in private consumption and government expenditure, indicating that an increase in private and government sector consumption could lead to a decrease in demand for imports in the long run. However, the VECM indicates that the imports are influenced by previous changes in imports, expenditure on investment goods, exports and import prices in the short run.
Originality/Value: These findings can provide significant implications for policy-makers seeking to improve their country’s trade balances in the long run. In particular, exchange rate policies which have a direct impact on import prices are reported to have significant long-term impact on Korea’s import demand, but only moderate effect in the short term. Policies implemented with a view to increasing the private sector consumption could be of a crucial importance in decreasing aggregate imports in the long term, resulting in further improvement in Korea’s balance of trade.
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참고문헌 (50)
참고문헌 신청
Abbott, A. J. / 1996 / Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Components in the UK : An Empirical Analysis / Applied Economics 28(9):1119~1125
Akaike, H. / 1969 / Fitting Autoregressive Model for Prediction / Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 21:243~247
Ahad, M. / 2017 / Financial Development and Estimation of Import Demand Function in Pakistan : Evidence from Combined Cointegration and Causality Tests / Global Business Review 18(1):118~131
Alias, M. H. / 2000 / Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Components in Malaysia : A Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis / ASEAN Economic Bulletin 17(3):257~269
Alias, M. H. / 2001 / Aggregate Import Demand and Expenditure Components in Five ASEAN Countries : An Empirical Study / Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia 35:37~60
Akaike, H. / 1969 / Fitting Autoregressive Model for Prediction / Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 21:243~247
Ahad, M. / 2017 / Financial Development and Estimation of Import Demand Function in Pakistan : Evidence from Combined Cointegration and Causality Tests / Global Business Review 18(1):118~131
Alias, M. H. / 2000 / Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Components in Malaysia : A Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis / ASEAN Economic Bulletin 17(3):257~269
Alias, M. H. / 2001 / Aggregate Import Demand and Expenditure Components in Five ASEAN Countries : An Empirical Study / Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia 35:37~60
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