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Predictability of Consumer Expectations for Future Changes in Real Growth
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소비자 기대심리의 미래 성장 예측력

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Journal
한국통계학회 응용통계연구 Vol.28 No.3 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2015.6
Pages
457 - 465 (9page)

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Predictability of Consumer Expectations for Future Changes in Real Growth
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Abstract· Keywords

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The long lasting world-wide recession and low economic progress have made it more important to predict future economic behavior. Accordingly, it is of interest to explore useful leading indicators, correlated with policy targets, to predict future economic growth. This study attempts to develop a model to evaluate the performance of consumer survey results from Statistics Korea to predict future economic activities. A statistical model is formulated and estimated to generate predictions by utilizing consumer expectations. The prediction is found improved in the distant future and consumer expectations appear to be a useful leading indicator to provide information of future real growth.
#소비자 기대 #예측력 #한계변화 #consumer expectation #marginal change #predictability

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