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The Secondary Effects of Nuclear Negotiations with North Korea: Crisis Management and Delaying Nuclear and Missile Development
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북핵 협상의 2차 효과 : 한반도 위기관리와 북한 핵·미사일 개발의 지체

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Kim, Sang Ki (통일연구원)
Journal
University of North Korean Studies Review of North Korean Studies Vol.26 No.3 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2023.12
Pages
199 - 235 (37page)

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The Secondary Effects of Nuclear Negotiations with North Korea: Crisis Management and Delaying Nuclear and Missile Development
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Reviewing the results of nuclear negotiation with North Korea, this study shows that the negotiations made positive contributions to both managing the crisis on the Korean Peninsula and delaying the development of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles. From the perspective of South Korea and the United States, although they failed to achieve the primary goal of making substantial progress on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the negotiations had secondary effects in terms of managing conflict and easing military tensions. The crisis management effect of the negotiations is clearly confirmed as war on the peninsula was averted in 1994 and 2017. In addition, while North Korea refrained from conducting nuclear and missile tests during the negotiation phase, Pyongyang clearly showed a tendency to accelerate nuclear and missile development activities during the deadlocked phase of negotiations. This analysis reveals both the flaws in arguments about the futility of nuclear negotiations with North Korea and the errors of the policy of strategic patience. The nuclear negotiations were useful and cannot be evaluated solely as a time-buying tactic benefiting North Korea. During the stalemate when negotiations were halted and the United States pursued strategic patience, North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities became more sophisticated and the potential costs of denuclearization increased further. The results of this research provide policy implications that prolonging the recent suspension of negotiations will only lead to the worsening of the North Korean nuclear issue, and South Korea and the United States need to pursue proactive policies toward North Korea to resume dialogue and negotiations.

Contents

1. 서론
2. 북핵 협상에 대한 기존 평가
3. 한반도 위기관리
4. 북한 핵·미사일 개발의 지체
5. 결론
참고문헌
Abstract

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