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학제간연구 과학기술학 뇌인지과학 기술정책 기타 복합학

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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
저널정보
한국유통과학회 산경연구논집 산경연구논집 제11권 제3호
발행연도
2020.1
수록면
39 - 50 (12page)

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Purpose: Agriculture, which is heavily influenced by climate conditions, is one of the industries most affected by climate change. In this respect, various studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural market have been conducted. Since climate change is a long-term phenomenon for more than a decade, long-term projections of agricultural prices as well as climate variables are needed to properly analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural market. However, these long-term price projections are often major constraints on studies of climate changes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of climate changes on the Korean onion market using ex-post analysis approach in order to avoid the difficulties of long-term price projections. Research design, data and methodology: This study develops an annual dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean onion market. The behavioral equations of the model were estimated by OLS based on the annual data from 1988 to 2018. The modelling system is first simulated to have actual onion market conditions from 2014 to 2018 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming the climatic conditions under RCP8.5 over the same period. Scenario analyses were simulated by both comparative static and dynamic approach to evaluate the differences between the two approaches. Results: According to the empirical results, if the climate conditions under RCP8.5 were applied from 2014 to 2018, the yield of onion would increase by about 4%, and the price of onion would decrease from 3.7% to 17.4%. In addition, the average price fluctuation rate over the five years under RCP8.5 climate conditions is 56%, which is more volatile than 46% under actual climate conditions. Empirical results also show that the price decreases have been alleviated in dynamic model compared with comparative static model. Conclusions: Empirical results show that climate change is expected to increase onion yields and reduce onion prices. Therefore, the appropriate countermeasures against climate change in Korean onion market should be found in the stabilization of supply and demand for price stabilization rather than technical aspects such as the development of new varieties to increase productivity

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참고문헌 (31)

참고문헌 신청
Abdul-Razak, M. / 2017 / The adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers to climate change in the Northern Region of Ghana / Climate Risk Management 17:104~122 google schola Adams, R. M. / 1998 / Effects of global climate change on agriculture : an interpretative review / Climate Research 11:19~30 google schola Rafia AFROZ / 2019 / Factors Affecting the Intention of the Rice Farmers to Adopt the Integrated Cash Waqf Environmental Protection Model: An Empirical Study in Kedah Malaysia / The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business 6(4):189~199 google schola Amamoua, H. / 2018 / Climate change-related risks and adaptation strategies as perceived in dairy cattle farming systems in Tunisia / Climate Risk Management 20:38~49 google schola Baldos, U. L. C. / 2014 / Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change / Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 58:554~570 google schola

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