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Examination of the Spillover Effects between Apartment Sale Prices and Jeonse Prices: Gradual-Shift Causality
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점진적 이동을 고려한 지역별 아파트 매매가격과 전세가격 사이의 전이 효과에 대한 연구

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Sangbae Kim (경북대학교)
Journal
한국부동산원 Journal of Real Estate Analysis Vol.9 No.1 KCI Accredited Journals
Published
2023.4
Pages
211 - 228 (18page)

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Examination of the Spillover Effects between Apartment Sale Prices and Jeonse Prices: Gradual-Shift Causality
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the spillover effect between sale and Jeonse prices of apartments for Korea"s seven metropolitan cities (Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Ulsan). For the purpose, this study used the Toda and Yamamoto and the Hafner and Herwartz"s LM models in order to consider structural change and gradual shift and examine spillover effects of both prices and volatility. Samples were chosen in the period from Jan 1999 to Oct 2022. As a result, the sale price preceded the Jeonse price in Busan, Daegu, Daejeon and Ulsan, while the sale price interacted with the Jeonse price in Incheon and Gwangju, which means that substitute theory was identified in the former four cities, whereas both substitute and asset market theories were simultaneously verified in the latter two. In addition, the result showed that volatility did not transfer from the sale price to the Jeonse but from the Jeonse to the sale in Seoul, Daegu, Incheon and Gwangju, which means that the asset market theory could be applied to the four cities in the short term. The overall result of this study explained the fact that relations between the sale and the Jeonse prices are different from the cities and disparity in them should be considered in order to come up with real estate measures.
#Spillover effect #Volatility transition #Gradual shift #Sale price #Jeonse price #전이효과 #변동성 전이 #점진적 이동 #매매가격 #전세가격

Contents

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 선행연구
Ⅲ. 실증분석모형
Ⅳ. 표본자료 및 분석 결과
Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론
참고문헌
국문초록

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